Who orchestrated JFK's assassination?

Question

Resolves to the rough consensus among non-US-state-affiliated scholars, researchers, and historians of the identity of the final orchestrator of the assassination of President John F. Kennedy at the start of 2030 (or N/A if no such consensus exists).

"Final orchestrator" means the entity most responsible for directly initiating the chain of events that led to the assasination. If the CIA enlisted the mafia to help with the assassination, this will resolve 100% CIA. If the CIA and mafia are co-equal partners in carrying out the assasination, this will resolve 50% CIA, 50% mafia, etc.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Lee Harvey Oswald (acting alone), followed by CIA and Other US government agency or official are most likely. See the market for live updates (240 traders, as of May 14, 2026).