I plan to add to this market, and others are welcome to also. I’m often browsing twitter and go down a rabbit hole of tweets that seem completely insane and blatantly based on misinformation of an unknown source. It would be great if this became a repository for people to post the most insane unhinged tweets you’ve seen in the comments and add it to the market so we can all bet on it.
Very, and I need to stress this, extremely rarely have one or two (out of thousands) turned out to be true or partially true.
The resolution of theories on this market should be generous - if the general accusation, “secret information” or whatever else is true/ real in the sense that it being the case was unfathomable to most people with healthy minds, it will resolve as yes. These theories are generally posted by people who already struggle with basic grammar and critical thought, so giving them the benefit of the doubt as to the precise specifics is I think, reasonable.
For example, if the theory was “Bush conspired with the spice girls to do 9/11”, and it turns out bush did “do” 9/11 (one thing definitely not expected) and he had some kind of contact with one of the spice girls, that should resolve true, even though in full direct meaning it isn’t exactly true.
Specific resolution criteria:
2020 election was “rigged” in favour of democrats through at least one of these means: Voting machines flipped votes from one candidate to another, millions of fraudulent mail in ballots were cast, ballots were destroyed or altered to favour a democrat candidate
HAARP being used to control weather patterns
https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-any-of-these-unhinged-conspira#6jwkdo2jzf2
The only way items on this market will resolve NO is if they do not resolve YES by 2040
1,000
3.00@ian mostly the odds that some country trys or has tried some form of weather manipulate, especially because we've got 15 years of increasing climate change before this resolves "NO"
@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso to add on that, my understanding is that we’ve already tried to manipulate precipitation by use of cloud seeding.
@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso I should clarify that in the context of this answer, the conspiracy is really US related - I know in the UAE from what I understand they already use it to control weather patterns (or at least make it rain, I suppose that isn’t necessarily the same thing). Sorry for any confusion, I’ll add it as a note
@LukeShadwell This option can reach into the future too, right? Say the 2 term limit is abolished, and Biden says, in the future relative to when this comment was made, he voted for Trump. Could this resolve YES?
@Quroe Yes, sure. If at any time Biden says he voted for trump or it is clear that he did through any other means of discovery before 2040 it will resolve yes.