MANIFOLD
What conspiracy theories will be proven true by 2100? (Mega Market)
255
Ṁ26kṀ110k
2100
90%
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
88%
Imane Khelif is intersex
87%
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
85%
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
82%
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
78%
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
74%
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
74%
Santa is rigged
67%
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
63%
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
52%
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
52%
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
51%
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
50%
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
50%
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
46%
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
43%
Groundhog Day is rigged
42%
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
42%
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
40%
Gamergate was right

What conspiracy theories will be proven correct by 2100. The conspiracy theory must have been true in 2024 so if the US government gets aliens after 2024 but didn't have them before it doesn't count. Please add your own conspiracy theories. I will be lenient in what is considered a conspiracy theory. If something is widely considered to be true in 2100 it will count as a yes resolution but to resolve beforehand it must be definitively proven and verified by multiple news sources. anything not proven true by 2100 will resolve no. Feel free to ask clarifying questions. In will not bet on this market in case of controversy

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I am hereby stating that I created answers in this market to discredit all the other ones (not the ones that were also jokes). The point is to make fun of people who (pretend to) give greater-than-epsilon probability to this BS.

Some of my psyop answers were caught and N/A'd (Jews control at least one nation's government, upside-down Australia isn't real). But others were left up, including this one.

@JamesF or @mods, please resolve this as YES.

If my options alone are not enough to resolve, just look at the market as a whole. Like, after the very first usage which was unfortunately serious, Rationalussy has always been a meme, and so is the corresponding answer here.

Some people made serious options about the Hellenistic era, or the Sentinelese people, and others ran away with them in meme options.

It's time to accept it: some answers here are, and have always been, psyops to discredit all the very serious and scholarly theories espoused by other answers.

@BrunoParga I am not sure your individual actions count as a “psyop” though

@mariopasquato well, we have to see what the market creator thinks. I am positive it counts.

@BrunoParga fair enough, but by this metric wearing a hat to hide your bald head on a tinder pic is a psyop. A very limited one

@mariopasquato A very grave one

@Lilemont it’s called hatfishing

@mariopasquato I love that it has come to asking precisely this question precisely on this market, but...

What would it take to convince you?

@mariopasquato I'd also still love to hear from @JamesF.

@BrunoParga I would define a psyop as an organized effort by an entity that can mobilize significant resources. Where I set the bar is immaterial because OP will certainly set it somewhere else

@mariopasquato bet you they won't

@Vesperstelo Could you be more specific? "Intersex" is a quite vague term which, today or in the next 75 years, could easily be moved around to apply to most female boxers.

@marvingardens I can't believe I'm saying this in the batshit conspiracy theory market, but

to be fair, it seems reasonable to assume this resolves based on the definition at the time of question creation.

I mean, it's not like this market exists for anything but personal signaling anyway.

@BrunoParga Today, intersex is quite a vague term.

@marvingardens the definition of "having mismatched or ambiguous karyotype, internal and external reproductive organs and/or assignment at birth" seems sufficient for the market.

do you have some kind of authority over this market

if Khelif is shown to have traits which don't match that definition of intersex and do match other definitions of intersex, what do you think is going to happen here? will everyone be like "ah well Bruno said this once earlier in the comments so that's the real criterion"?

@Snarflak @JamesF We will need to draw a line on the spectrum between 'let it happen' & 'failed to stop it'. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_11_intelligence_before_the_attacks

the p320 stuff is literally proven right now...

@OKanon Hardly. The Air Force GSC story turned out to be a lie.

@GG there are youtube videos of people replicating a discharge without trigger pull

@dgga

Wyoming Gun Project went viral last year for using a screw to push a P320 trigger backwards, through the pre-travel and into the wall, stopping less than 1mm before the trigger broke. He then pushed the slide down causing the striker to drop, which would have ignited a round were it in the chamber.
2 problems with this test:

  • It's not uncommanded: A competent operator keeps their finger off the trigger. If a foreign object is already pulling your trigger 95% of the way back, the safety has already been bypassed by the user/environment.

  • More fundamentally, this failure is not unique. JaredAF replicates it on a Glock, and explains why any striker-fired gun with standard slide-to-frame play will fail this test if you hold the trigger at less than a millimeter before its breaking point.
    Mega-markets only give you a short space to describe your option, requiring readers to fill in the blanks. Every gun could conceivably fire if struck by lightning or put in an oven. The controversy is whether the P320 has a unique vulnerability, making it fundamentally less safe than trusted platforms like the Glock and the M&P. The WGP video proves the opposite: that under extreme, staged manipulation, the P320 behaves exactly like its competitors.

boughtṀ100 NO

@PhilosophyBear what's your reasoning for it being so low given that he's read the report and the report repeatedly mentions him taking over?

https://manifold.markets/JamesF/what-conspiracy-theories-will-be-pr#ff0d1ghdgk5

filled a Ṁ3 YES at 29% order

@BrunoParga They are descended from Vulgar Latin.

@Chumchulum magnum si verum.

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