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MANIFOLD
What conspiracy theories will be proven true by 2100? (Mega Market)
276
Ṁ26kṀ120k
2100
95%
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
90%
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
87%
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
85%
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
82%
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
81%
Santa is rigged
76%
Imane Khelif is intersex
74%
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
74%
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
68%
The Trump regime intentionally sabotaged the electoral process to stay in power
67%
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
62%
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
59%
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
57%
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
50%
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
49%
Some answers in this market are bought NO because they are true
48%
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
47%
Groundhog Day is rigged
47%
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
43%
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese

What conspiracy theories will be proven correct by 2100. The conspiracy theory must have been true in 2024 so if the US government gets aliens after 2024 but didn't have them before it doesn't count. Please add your own conspiracy theories. I will be lenient in what is considered a conspiracy theory. If something is widely considered to be true in 2100 it will count as a yes resolution but to resolve beforehand it must be definitively proven and verified by multiple news sources. anything not proven true by 2100 will resolve no. Feel free to ask clarifying questions. In will not bet on this market in case of controversy

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what happens if police discover evidence of other crimes connected to Jeffrey Epstein during a search that is subsequently declared unlawful?

what if there's evidence that the UK security services helped cover up those crimes?

oh so no option will resolve till the year 2100?

bought Ṁ55 YES

@Lorelai it was absolutely obvious since at least ~February 2025 something like this was likely.

But it is very dubious it was true in any meaningful way in 2024, which is part of the market's conditions.

@MalachiteEagle

I used to understand the grid even less than I do now

My current understanding (no pun intended) is that it would take a truly massive amount of energy being thrown into or taken from the grid to significantly affect frequency, and even then the system would quickly rebalance - if you're putting energy in you're basically paying your enemy's bill, and if you're using energy you're gonna cause a blackout.

So yeah, this is basically "Israel uses nuclear devices against Iran, except it's power plants not bombs". All in all a pretty reasonable option for the standards of this market.

@BrunoParga I've seen a youtube video about this

ludibriu, quod mireris a nonullis aestimatum et subtili indagine explicatum, plane futile et quod inanitatem curiosorum proda

the secret to the alignment problem is written somewhere among all that slash fiction

The UK did nordstream

filled a Ṁ4 NO at 34% order

@Chumchulum Order up!

bought Ṁ10 NO

@BoltonBailey to clarify, is this being defined as e.g. >90% of social media posts/comments being secret bots as of 2024?

@JamesF Steelman: contrails have a non-trivial impact on global warming. The EPA in 2009 declared that carbon dioxide was a "pollutant" under the Clean Air Act. This was controversial at the time, because "pollutant" at the time of act's passing was intended to gasses with direct, localized harm, like carbon monoxide, particulate matter, and sulfar dioxide, stuff that would colloquially be understood as "toxic chemicals". That language was codified by the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022.
So the water vapor in contrails causes global warming, and the EPA holds that gasses which cause global warming are "pollutants", and "pollutants" is what the EPA originally called the category of CO, SO2, and particulate matter, that the public might colloquially identify as "toxic chemicals".

@TheAllMemeingEye @JamesF a bunch of streamers would qualify

bought Ṁ10 YES

@JamesF duplicates.

@Hakari Different last names.

@GG right, thanks.

@JamesF as of when? a date or at least a year is needed here.

bought Ṁ5 YES

also @JamesF would it count if a cure has been discovered and synthesized but hasn't been released yet because it is currently in lengthy clinical trials?

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