
What conspiracy theories will be proven correct by 2100. The conspiracy theory must have been true in 2024 so if the US government gets aliens after 2024 but didn't have them before it doesn't count. Please add your own conspiracy theories. I will be lenient in what is considered a conspiracy theory. If something is widely considered to be true in 2100 it will count as a yes resolution but to resolve beforehand it must be definitively proven and verified by multiple news sources. anything not proven true by 2100 will resolve no. Feel free to ask clarifying questions. In will not bet on this market in case of controversy
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@Lorelai it was absolutely obvious since at least ~February 2025 something like this was likely.
But it is very dubious it was true in any meaningful way in 2024, which is part of the market's conditions.
I used to understand the grid even less than I do now
My current understanding (no pun intended) is that it would take a truly massive amount of energy being thrown into or taken from the grid to significantly affect frequency, and even then the system would quickly rebalance - if you're putting energy in you're basically paying your enemy's bill, and if you're using energy you're gonna cause a blackout.
So yeah, this is basically "Israel uses nuclear devices against Iran, except it's power plants not bombs". All in all a pretty reasonable option for the standards of this market.
@BoltonBailey to clarify, is this being defined as e.g. >90% of social media posts/comments being secret bots as of 2024?
@JamesF Steelman: contrails have a non-trivial impact on global warming. The EPA in 2009 declared that carbon dioxide was a "pollutant" under the Clean Air Act. This was controversial at the time, because "pollutant" at the time of act's passing was intended to gasses with direct, localized harm, like carbon monoxide, particulate matter, and sulfar dioxide, stuff that would colloquially be understood as "toxic chemicals". That language was codified by the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022.
So the water vapor in contrails causes global warming, and the EPA holds that gasses which cause global warming are "pollutants", and "pollutants" is what the EPA originally called the category of CO, SO2, and particulate matter, that the public might colloquially identify as "toxic chemicals".
also @JamesF would it count if a cure has been discovered and synthesized but hasn't been released yet because it is currently in lengthy clinical trials?








