No matter who killed Kennedy, it is very clear Oswald was a weirdo. Probably brain damage from an early age.

Has anybody checked if JFK was vaxxed?

I'm not familiar with all of the evidence, but I'm confused as to why everyone thinks that conditional on there being a conspiracy, it was almost certainly the CIA behind it.

@ZaneMiller Someone on Twitter was just telling me that I'm wrong about both the lab leak theory and the JFK assassination.

In the former case, he argued that Covid was obviously a lab leak because the CIA says so.

In the latter, he argued that the CIA had obviously killed JFK.

@PeterMillerc030 Sounds like this person has a consistently high opinion of the CIA's competence!

Wait this resolves in 2030? Oops

Oswald acted alone ... but he was aiming for Connally.

What new evidence is coming out between now and 2030? lol

To clarify, I seriously doubt anything in the remaining unreleased documents will contradict the lone gunman theory.

The CIA did it, but scholars, researchers, and historians will never admit it.

it's definietely not the CIA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gG6LrzOcZJk&t=239s

oh wait

https://twitter.com/vdarknessfalls8/status/1730221179871302062

@mistersplice that's a lot of words for someone not betting

@Joshua I have a position, but with this question it’s basically like throwing mana away

@ersatz If only there were a plausible way this market would be resolved, I would happily put a ton on it. The odds that it was the CIA are certainly less than 1%.

@SemioticRivalry Simply not true.

@SemioticRivalry Where did you get that near absolute certainty?

@NicoDelon the prior is extremely low, no compelling evidence has come out in 60 years, and the sequence of events required makes it much more unlikely. The lemmino video I think did a good job at laying out how many coincidences were required to get oswald into Texas school book depository, and how it'd be near impossible for someone to plan.

@SemioticRivalry Thanks. That doesn’t quite move it below one percent for me. Priors are weird entities. How do you estimate those in a nation that wasn’t even two centuries old, at the height of the cold war, with an unusual president who nearly caused a nuclear war and is partly responsible for the Vietnam war?

@NicoDelon I think that other liberal democracies are a valid reference class for the United States, and as far as I am aware nothing similar has happened there, which gives us a fairly large sample.

@SemioticRivalry Fair enough.

I’m interested to see whether this causes any movement in the market. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-66792977

Ex-Secret Service agent reveals new JFK assassination detail

Ex-Secret Service agent Paul Landis reveals a new detail some say upends the "single bullet theory".

@Noit It will not.

I say that before reading it, because I know how these things work.

@DavidBolin To me it seems very minor, though I’m not a Kennedy historian. But as time moves on we’re going to see less and less new evidence, so it’s kind of interesting to see what it’d take to move the needle.