Resolves to the rough consensus among non-US-state-affiliated scholars, researchers, and historians of the identity of the final orchestrator of the assassination of President John F. Kennedy at the start of 2030 (or N/A if no such consensus exists).
"Final orchestrator" means the entity most responsible for directly initiating the chain of events that led to the assasination. If the CIA enlisted the mafia to help with the assassination, this will resolve 100% CIA. If the CIA and mafia are co-equal partners in carrying out the assasination, this will resolve 50% CIA, 50% mafia, etc.
1,000@ZaneMiller Someone on Twitter was just telling me that I'm wrong about both the lab leak theory and the JFK assassination.
In the former case, he argued that Covid was obviously a lab leak because the CIA says so.
In the latter, he argued that the CIA had obviously killed JFK.
@ersatz If only there were a plausible way this market would be resolved, I would happily put a ton on it. The odds that it was the CIA are certainly less than 1%.
@NicoDelon the prior is extremely low, no compelling evidence has come out in 60 years, and the sequence of events required makes it much more unlikely. The lemmino video I think did a good job at laying out how many coincidences were required to get oswald into Texas school book depository, and how it'd be near impossible for someone to plan.
@SemioticRivalry Thanks. That doesn’t quite move it below one percent for me. Priors are weird entities. How do you estimate those in a nation that wasn’t even two centuries old, at the height of the cold war, with an unusual president who nearly caused a nuclear war and is partly responsible for the Vietnam war?
@NicoDelon I think that other liberal democracies are a valid reference class for the United States, and as far as I am aware nothing similar has happened there, which gives us a fairly large sample.
I’m interested to see whether this causes any movement in the market. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-66792977
@DavidBolin To me it seems very minor, though I’m not a Kennedy historian. But as time moves on we’re going to see less and less new evidence, so it’s kind of interesting to see what it’d take to move the needle.