Will an AI system, product, company, concept, or affiliated person be *nominated* for TIME's 2024 Person of The Year?
67
258
995
Dec 13
68%
chance

Previously: /SG/will-an-ai-system-product-company-c

This is for the 2024 shortlist, including the winner. Last year's shortlist had Altman, and so this question would have resolved Yes.

Note that Elon Musk will not count for this question unless his nomination is unambiguously dependent on his work with AI, and it's clear he would not have been nominated if not for that. So he would not have counted in 2021 or 2022. But if he is nominated because of XAI and Grok, this would resolve Yes. The same goes for any Google figure nominated due to Gemini, and so on.

If there is no shortlist and the winner is not AI-related, this resolves No.

See also:

/Joshua/which-ai-system-product-company-con
/Joshua/who-will-be-on-the-time-person-of-t-315061f8ffbe
/Joshua/who-will-be-the-time-person-of-the-6ef43addcc5b

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bought Ṁ100 NO

Does Jensen Huang count

@ItsMe I think he would, yes.

bought Ṁ25 YES

I think if there is no shortlist, this should resolve N/A. Otherwise the market becomes a compound of “will a shortlist be published” and “will an AI-related person be nominated”. There clearly will be a shortlist, it’s just not clear whether it will be made public.

@Santiago Yeah I might have done this differently if I was making it now, but I hesitate to change criteria several months into the market.

@Santiago Huh, actually I just realized that I never even made a proper "who will be on the shortlist" market for 2024. I've now made one, and if there is no shortlist the options resolve N/A so it's not a compound question:

bought Ṁ200 YES

I think this is already really likely. There's been so much exciting AI news already, and it's only march.

@Joshua Couldn’t we have said the same thing about last year or any post-chatGPT year? It’s certainly exciting for us tech-oriented people, but hard to say whether it will be for the Time Editorial board & that they won’t choose something political or cultural instead.

@elf This market is just about nomination. So yes, the same could be said for last year and something chatGPT related was indeed nominated

sold Ṁ50 NO

@Tumbles Oops, should have read more carefully. Switching my trade to Yes! Seems like a no-brainer given there were 9 nominees last year

This is at 60% right now, which is a lot of possibilities. Maybe we can be more specific?

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Note that Elon Musk will not count for this question unless his nomination is unambiguously dependent on his work with AI, and it's clear he would not have been nominated if not for that.

How are you going to judge this? How about comparable tech CEOs e.g. Zuckerberg? For example, I think it's pretty clear that Musk should have counted in both years. What is Tesla but an AI company?

@Sailfish I'll take a look at what they wrote in those years, but I contest that Tesla's AI was pivotal to those nominations based on my memory. I'd try to go by what they cite as reasons he was influential, and how much emphasis they put on AI.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Will Manifold over correct and completely underrate AI next year? That’d be ironic.