This question resolves to the TIME 2024 Person of The Year. This was most recently won by Taylor Swift, Volodymyr Zelenskyy & The Spirit of Ukraine, Elon Musk, and Joe Biden & Kamala Harris. You can see all previous winners here.
This market uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers. If multiple options do end up being true based on TIME choosing something like "Donald Trump and The Supreme Court", then those options will resolve to an even split of 100% (50%-50%, in that example). You can find more edge-case rules in my 2023 POTY market.
You can submit suggestions for people to add here:
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ13,749 | |
| 2 | Ṁ10,545 | |
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| 5 | Ṁ2,069 |
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@beaver1 I got a notification for this comment and thought it was about me for a second and was confused
@benshindel when, inevitably, your time comes, and you rule with an iron fist, remember the auspicious prophecies of beaver5
shortlist is out! https://www.today.com/news/time-2024-person-of-year-shortlist-rcna183210
Side market on announcement date: https://manifold.markets/IsaacLiu/on-what-day-will-the-2024-time-pers
From the year 2000 and onward, every election year has had a presidential nominee (winner) featured as person of the year. There is also precedence for a president being featured more than once - Obama, Bush, Nixon. It seems extraordinarily likely that Trump will also be featured.
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I do like this market for this year specifically, but in general I personally still hate having to predict whether it'll be split, which is both predicting the TIME selection and what answers get added to the market, the latter being especially problematic. The mutually exclusive multiple choice format just isn't really suited to this, other doesn't have the right mathematical properties here.
This year because the presidential ticket is pretty likely to be POTY anyway the way you've set this up has a high probability of working out without that sort of weirdness. But imagine betting on "any ai company" and then getting half the payout you expected because someone later added the answer "deepmind" and that ended up being the POTY. Also note that the question of which answers to add becomes very tricky because it affects prices!
@SarM Actually it all works out perfectly fairly: check out the tooltip on Other - when you bet on Other, you automatically get shares in any new answer as well.