Who will be the TIME 2024 Person of the Year?
Dec 11
Donald Trump (or any Republican party ticket)
Joe Biden (or any Democratic party ticket)
Artificial Intelligence (or any AI company, concept, etc)
Taylor Swift (Taylor Swift)
Sam Altman (CEO of OpenAI)
Jensen Huang (President of NVIDIA)
Janet Yellen (US Treasury Secretary)
Jerome Powell (Chair of the Federal Reserve)
The Victims of War (or any related abstract / group)
The Supreme Court (or any judges / concept)
Xi Jinping (President of PRC)
E. Jean Carroll (Trump Plaintiff)
Trump Prosecutors (e.g. Jack Smith, Fanni WIllis)

This question resolves to the TIME 2024 Person of The Year. This was most recently won by Taylor Swift, Volodymyr Zelenskyy & The Spirit of Ukraine, Elon Musk, and Joe Biden & Kamala Harris. You can see all previous winners here.

This market uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers. If multiple options do end up being true based on TIME choosing something like "Donald Trump and The Supreme Court", then those options will resolve to an even split of 100% (50%-50%, in that example). You can find more edge-case rules in my 2023 POTY market.

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A deepfake Trump/Biden as person of the year.

I'm breaking the tie between Trump and Biden. First, they each almost certainly have to win the election to win POTY, and I think Trump has about a 60/40 advantage at passing that hurdle.

Secondly, if Trump wins, his comeback story will be too much for the media to resist. Even though they all despise him, they love to despise him.

And despite what they'll say, they'll secretly be celebrating. No one drives traffic to news sites like Trump, except possibly Taylor Swift.

On the other hand, if Biden wins the election, and otherwise just carries on with what he's been doing, everyone will simply yawn. Republicans will argue that the election was rigged; Democrats will breathe a sigh of relief and move on with their lives.

In 2020, Time could write metaphors about Biden defeating the Minotaur and escaping the labyrinth with a straight face. Few people could read that seriously now.

And if we learned anything from last year, it's that Time will always pick the option that sells more magazines.

Made an even more consolidated market to capture the general odds of Politics vs AI vs Other, which are the factions that I see competing here:

bought Ṁ1 Taylor Swift (Taylor... YES

I know picking Taylor Swift twice in a row is unlikely, but it's not that unlikely.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 This is the year I truly go bankrupt betting against Taylor.

Jerome Powell (Chair of the Federal Reserve)

I would love this to be true

@Joshua it would however be something like Jerome Powell and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

@RanaG Ben Bernanke won in 2009 so there's precedent!

bought Ṁ100 Other YES

https://time.com/4591216/time-person-of-year-election-years/ -- "In roughly half of the presidential election years that have passed since the franchise launched with Charles Lindbergh as 1927’s selection, the Person of the Year has been someone other than November’s victor." -> Other seems undervalued

bought Ṁ450 Joe Biden (or any De... NO

I'm kind of shocked at how high Trump and Biden are lol.

Is Time really so US skewed that it would give it to one of them simply for winning the presidency lol

@SirSalty It's happened every election year since 1996 when they didn't give it to Clinton upon re-election, but I do think there's a decent argument to be made that they'd want to mix it up this year. Biden and Trump have both won it so maybe they'd go with someone new.

@Joshua oh I didn't know this, I guess I am the dumb money on this market.

(but also that's stupid lol)

@SirSalty I mean they had never picked an entertainer before last year, but then went with Swift. So maybe they'll break another tradition this year!

@SirSalty My 'fault'; I had limit orders set at 30%. Historical data indicates a strong focus on the U.S. president, and my top contestant for this position (Xi) is highly unlikely next year unless the New York Times seeks a new country. And I feel that, after Swift last year, they must make a political choice.

@Lion I think if Trump wins, TIME would fear being accused of partisanship if they didn't name him POTY. So I think they'd do it, but add some sort of twist like naming the Supreme Court or Trump Prosecutors with him.

If Biden wins, then I think maybe they'd just nominate him but then choose something more exciting that will sell magazines. AI could work for this.

@Joshua The Manifold AI POTY hype starts again ❤

Let's just say there is a distinction between what I believe is the best choice and how I place my bets regarding my expectations of whom will be choosen.

@SirSalty "Time is an American news magazine based in New York City."

bought Ṁ10 Taylor Swift (Taylor... YES

I think it will be E. Jean Carroll, but I can’t add her.

@suzumebatchi Temporarily opened, add her!

Ah well I don't want to leave it open too long for fear of trolls, so I'm just gonna add her for ya


Thank you!

bought Ṁ145 Donald Trump (or any... YES

@Joshua you mist an el

@jim Thanks, edited.

Donald Trump (or any Republican party ticket)
bought Ṁ25 Donald Trump (or any... YES

Metaculus thinks there's a ~70% chance that the POTY will be the president-elect by the way. With Trump currently at ~%50 to win, his odds should be at about 35% if we think there's no chance he splits it with someone other than his running mate.

I do think "Trump and SCOTUS" or "Trump and Trump Prosecutors" are reasonable possibilities though.

sold Ṁ120 Joe Biden (or any De... NO

@Joshua I was just arb-ing the other POTY market