This only counts if they are nominated specifically because of their AI work. If Elon is nominated but would have likely been nominated without xAI, that doesn't count.
If someone is nominated who left one company in 2024 and joined another, I may resolve to a split like 75% OpenAI, 25% Microsoft if Altman leaves OpenAI partway through the year for Microsoft and is then nominated again.
If no such nominee, resolves to [No AI-related Nominee].
If you have suggestions for more candidates, please post them below and I will add them.
If there are multiple AI-affiliated nominees, this will resolve to an equal split of the correct options. So if Altman and Amodei are nominated, it would be 50% OpenAI and 50% Anthropic.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): A passing mention of AI in a nominee's entry is not sufficient - they must be nominated specifically because of their AI work. If they would likely have been nominated regardless of their AI work, they do not count.
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I don't think this one passing mention is enough to say Zuckerberg would not have been nominated if not for AI. Elon's entry doesn't mention AI at all, nor does any other entry.
Therefore, resolves NO.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?