This is a market about David Grusch's claims about an alleged secret government program. Per Wikipedia:

Grusch claims that the U.S. federal government maintains a highly secretive UFO retrieval program and possesses multiple spacecraft of non-human origin as well as corpses of deceased pilots. Grusch also claims there is "substantive evidence that white-collar crime" took place to conceal UFO programs and that he had interviewed officials who said that people had been killed to conceal the programs.

This is an independent multiple choice market, options can resolve yes or no by themselves. An option resolves yes if I am reasonably confident that it is more than 50% likely to be true, before January 1st 2025.

In legal terms, think of this as a civil case rather than a criminal one. I only need to think that a preponderance of the evidence supports a claim, rather than being sure it is true beyond a reasonable doubt.

I will not trade in this market after betting options down to reasonable base rates. If my judgement is contested I will delegate judgement to another unbiased moderator or a group of moderators.

I may edit these exact resolution rules to better align with the spirit of the question, and am open to suggestions. I may also make minor edits to the options to make it more clear what claim they are describing and what would and would not count. I am also happy to hear suggestions of more claims to add.

For my own bias, I am very skeptical of claims about non-human intelligence but an open to the possibility and intrigued by the mystery of UAPs. I am entirely open to the possibility of mundane government fraud, but very skeptical of anyone having been killed to cover up mundane fraud.

My hope is that a market that separates the specific claims made by Grusch and which only requires something to seem more likely than not will encourage people to break down what parts of his testimony are likely to be true and what parts are likely to be false.