It will be on the front page of the NYT in the week after it is declassified

'declassifi':17 'front':6 'nyt':10 'page':7 'week':13

It is related to Nuclear weapons (Someone now has them, someone is now close to having them, etc)

'close':14 'etc':18 'nuclear':5 'relat':3 'someon':7,11 'weapon':6

It will be declassified by the end of February.

A majority poll of Manifold users will agree that it is really is a "serious national security threat"

'agre':8 'major':2 'manifold':5 'nation':16 'poll':3 'realli':12 'secur':17 'serious':15 'threat':18 'user':6

It is related specifically to Iran's nuclear weapons program

'iran':6 'nuclear':8 'program':10 'relat':3 'specif':4 'weapon':9

It will be declassified before Presidents' Day (February 19)

'19':9 'day':7 'declassifi':4 'februari':8 'presid':6

It’s that Iran currently has nuclear weapons

'current':5 'iran':4 'nuclear':7 'weapon':8

There's a mention of cybersecurity or cyberwarfare

'cybersecur':6 'cyberwarfar':8 'mention':4

It will be known by April what country/group the threat is from

'april':6 'country/group':8 'known':4 'threat':10

There is new military action as a direct consequence of this threat

'action':5 'consequ':9 'direct':8 'militari':4 'new':3 'threat':12

The threat is mentioned in a 2024 US presidential debate

'2024':7 'debat':10 'mention':4 'presidenti':9 'threat':2 'us':8

Scheme to scare Americans & Congress into reinstating section 702 of Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA)-expiring in April-so they can continue to collect communications on Americans & foreigners.






'702':9 'act':14 'american':4,28 'april':19 'april-so':18 'collect':25 'communic':26 'congress':5 'continu':23 'expir':16 'fisa':15 'foreign':11,29 'intellig':12 'reinstat':7 'scare':3 'scheme':1 'section':8 'surveil':13

It will be leaked to the public (All major details, so no one is waiting for more information)

'detail':10 'inform':18 'leak':4 'major':9 'one':13 'public':7 'wait':15

It's related to electromagnetic/electronic warfare

'electromagnetic/electronic':5 'relat':3 'warfar':6

There is a Manifold market related to it which is considered a "major sitewide event" by a majority of voters in a Manifold poll

'consid':11 'event':15 'major':13,18 'manifold':4,23 'market':5 'poll':24 'relat':6 'sitewid':14 'voter':20

Mike Turner is lying and there is no threat

'arm':5 'conflict':6 'current':4 'involv':2

If the threat is declassified, Vladimir Putin will deny that it is true in a public appearance before April 1st

'1st':20 'appear':17 'april':19 'declassifi':5 'deni':9 'public':16 'putin':7 'threat':3 'true':13 'vladimir':6

It's related to tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine

'nuclear':6 'relat':3 'tactic':5 'ukrain':9 'weapon':7

It’s related to climate or weather modification

'climat':5 'modif':8 'relat':3 'weather':7

If it's related to Russia, Tucker Carlson will make a video statement about it on X (within 10 days of the US officially confirming it is related to Russia)

'10':19 'carlson':8 'confirm':25 'day':20 'make':10 'offici':24 'relat':4,28 'russia':6,30 'statement':13 'tucker':7 'us':23 'video':12 'within':18 'x':17

It is related to capabilities to hack US or European civilian infrastructure such as power grids and voting machines

'capabl':5 'civilian':11 'european':10 'grid':16 'hack':7 'infrastructur':12 'machin':19 'power':15 'relat':3 'us':8 'vote':18

Russia has deployed nuclear weapons in space

'deploy':3 'nuclear':4 'russia':1 'space':7 'weapon':5

'earth':8 'relat':3 'space':6 'space-to-earth':5 'weapon':9

New Space Race: The Russians are going to try to beat us to the moon this time

'beat':11 'go':7 'moon':15 'new':1 'race':3 'russian':5 'space':2 'time':17 'tri':9 'us':12

'earth':6 'earth-to-spac':5 'relat':3 'space':8 'weapon':9

'relat':3 'space':6,8 'space-to-spac':5 'weapon':9

Donald Trump references the US Space Force

'donald':1 'forc':7 'refer':3 'space':6 'trump':2 'us':5

A satellite was attacked/compromised/captured

'attacked/compromised/captured':4 'satellit':2

The threat violates the 1967 Outer Space Treaty

'1967':5 'outer':6 'space':7 'threat':2 'treati':8 'violat':3

It is related to a risk of violence through non-ballistic means

'ballist':12 'mean':13 'non':11 'non-ballist':10 'relat':3 'risk':6 'violenc':8

Key details will be leaked or announced by Russia before leak or public disclosure by US

'announc':7 'detail':2 'disclosur':14 'key':1 'leak':5,11 'public':13 'russia':9 'us':16

It will be leaked, without being declassified first, by the end of February

'declassifi':7 'end':11 'februari':13 'first':8 'leak':4 'without':5

It is an offensive military capability that could potentially be used against Ukraine without collateral damage in other countries

'capabl':6 'collater':15 'could':8 'countri':19 'damag':16 'militari':5 'offens':4 'potenti':9 'ukrain':13 'use':11 'without':14

Someone will be killed by the threat in 2024

There is a high risk of an unintentional catastrophic accident due to poor design or loss of control

'accid':10 'catastroph':9 'control':18 'design':14 'due':11 'high':4 'loss':16 'poor':13 'risk':5 'unintent':8

'anti':3 'anti-satellit':2 'kinet':1 'satellit':4 'weapon':5

A bill is proposed to allocate taxpayer dollars to begin production of countermeasures before March 31

'31':16 'alloc':6 'begin':10 'bill':2 'countermeasur':13 'dollar':8 'march':15 'product':11 'propos':4 'taxpay':7

Biden calls or meets with Xi to discuss the threat

'biden':1 'call':2 'discuss':8 'meet':4 'threat':10 'xi':6

The everyday life of the average American is impacted in a non-trivial way

'american':7 'averag':6 'everyday':2 'impact':9 'life':3 'non':13 'non-trivi':12 'trivial':14 'way':15

It will be discussed on the All-In podcast on Friday, Feb 16.

'16':14 'all-in':7 'discuss':4 'feb':13 'friday':12 'podcast':10

A member of Congress compares it to a science fiction book/movie/show

'book/movie/show':11 'compar':5 'congress':4 'fiction':10 'member':2 'scienc':9

It is related to nuclear missile defense systems

'defens':7 'missil':6 'nuclear':5 'relat':3 'system':8

Nikki Haley will make a public statement about it (within 72 hours of official White House release/confirmation of the threat)

'72':11 'haley':2 'hour':12 'hous':16 'make':4 'nikki':1 'offici':14 'public':6 'release/confirmation':17 'statement':7 'threat':20 'white':15 'within':10

Russia wants to deploy nuclear weapons into space

'deploy':4 'nuclear':5 'russia':1 'space':8 'want':2 'weapon':6

'kessler':5 'russia':1 'syndrom':6 'trigger':4 'want':2

Varda Space Industries: HIV Ritonavir Crystals In LEO

'crystal':6 'hiv':4 'industri':3 'leo':8 'ritonavir':5 'space':2 'varda':1

Eliezer Yudkowsky will state or imply that the weapon is an existential threat to civilization

'civil':15 'eliez':1 'existenti':12 'impli':6 'state':4 'threat':13 'weapon':9 'yudkowski':2

The threat is a new type of bomb with a higher yield than nuclear weapons can achieve (50 Mt)

'50':18 'achiev':17 'bomb':8 'higher':11 'mt':19 'new':5 'nuclear':14 'threat':2 'type':6 'weapon':15 'yield':12

Something has already occurred, and the default outcome will be a catastrophe if no human action is taken

'action':16 'alreadi':3 'catastroph':12 'default':7 'human':15 'occur':4 'outcom':8 'someth':1 'taken':18

Manifold users will think it is technically a serious threat but relatively boring, according to a poll

'accord':14 'bore':13 'manifold':1 'poll':17 'relat':12 'serious':9 'technic':7 'think':4 'threat':10 'user':2

It will be revealed that the Americans already possess the weapon themselves

'alreadi':8 'american':7 'possess':9 'reveal':4 'weapon':11

Donald Trump will speak positively about the threat or compliment the adversary for developing it

'adversari':12 'compliment':10 'develop':14 'donald':1 'posit':5 'speak':4 'threat':8 'trump':2

On March 31, 2024, @Joshua judges that the threat is or is likely to become an election issue

'2024':4 '31':3 'becom':15 'elect':17 'issu':18 'joshua':5 'judg':6 'like':13 'march':2 'threat':9

It’s ballotechnics/fusion weapon without fission

'ballotechnics/fusion':3 'fission':6 'weapon':4 'without':5

There will be 7+ opinion articles in the New York Times related to it in the week after 

'7':4 'articl':6 'new':9 'opinion':5 'relat':12 'time':11 'week':17 'york':10

It's nuclear-powered (as opposed to nuclear-armed)

'arm':11 'nuclear':4,10 'nuclear-arm':9 'nuclear-pow':3 'oppos':7 'power':5

'anti':5 'anti-satellit':4 'satellit':6 'system':7

It's still under development and not yet deployed

It is something that was already publicly known (before February 2024)

'2024':11 'alreadi':6 'februari':10 'known':8 'public':7 'someth':3

SNL will have a skit about it before April.

It will turn out to be fake or dramatically overblown

'dramat':9 'fake':7 'overblown':10 'turn':3

It is capable of creating a large EMP to take out huge area of satellites 

'area':13 'capabl':3 'creat':5 'emp':8 'huge':12 'larg':7 'satellit':15 'take':10

The Russian military has drawn up a plan for its use

'drawn':5 'militari':3 'plan':8 'russian':2 'use':11

It will be used to argue for increased funding of NASA

'argu':6 'fund':9 'increas':8 'nasa':11 'use':4

A congressional representative or government official will explicitly use it to argue for ongoing US aid to Ukraine

'aid':16 'argu':12 'congression':2 'explicit':8 'govern':5 'offici':6 'ongo':14 'repres':3 'ukrain':18 'us':15 'use':9

Free response, all options that I believe we know to be true before April resolve Yes, options we don't know to be true resolve No. Options can resolve yes or no early as we learn specifics.

Options where I find it too difficult to judge or which are poorly phrased resolve N/A.