By 2035, Will an AI Model Win Time's Person of the Year award?
7
100Ṁ123
2035
33%
chance

Resolution criteria

  • Co-winner case: YES if a specific AI model is among the named honorees.

  • Resolves NO if the honoree is an AI company (e.g., OpenAI, Google), an individual or team that built AI, a generic concept (“Artificial Intelligence,” “AI”), a hardware robot, or any non-Person-of-the-Year franchise (e.g., TIME100, TIME100 AI, CEO/Athlete/Icon of the Year) or only the readers’ poll. The market uses TIME editors’ selection only. (time.com)

Sources to check at resolution:

  • TIME “Person of the Year” tag/archive. (time.com)

  • TIME explainer on what “Person of the Year” means (editors’ selection, not a popularity contest). (time.com)

Background

  • TIME’s Person of the Year recognizes “the person or persons who most affected the news…for good or ill,” chosen by editors each year since 1927. (time.com)

  • Precedent for non-human/symbolic picks exists: 1982’s “Machine of the Year: The Computer” and 2006’s “You.” However, these were not specific products/models. (time.com)

  • Recent honorees show the franchise remains active: 2023 Taylor Swift; 2024 Donald Trump. (time.com)

Considerations

  • TIME has awarded groups and even inanimate objects (e.g., “The Computer” in 1982), so a non-human honoree is plausible, but a specific AI model would be novel. (time.com)

  • Don’t confuse with other TIME lists/awards (TIME100, TIME100 AI, CEO/Athlete/Icon of the Year); these do not count. (time.com)

  • The readers’ poll is separate and non-binding; it never determines the official honoree. (time.com)

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy