When will OpenAI broadly release GPT 4.5 or GPT 5?
120
6kṀ45k
resolved May 14
100%46%
May 1-15
0.4%
March 1-15
0.7%
March 16-31
0.9%
April 1-15
1.4%
April 16-30
3%
May 16-31
6%
June 1-15
5%
June 16-30
3%
July 1-15
3%
July 16-31
2%
August 1-15
2%
August 16-31
1.5%
September 1-15
1.4%
September 16-30
1.1%
October 1-15
1.4%
October 16-31
21%Other

Resolves to the time period in which this happens, dates inclusive.

Any model which is clearly the next major, canonical form of GPT will count for this market regardless of what it is called. I am assuming this will be called GPT-4.5 or GPT-5, but it still counts if it has another name. A larger context window does not count, a jump like GPT-3 to GPT-3.5 does count.

It must be released to the general public, though it can still be in open beta and it can still be behind a paywall or require a subscription.

I will continue adding later time periods as necessary, which will split from "Other". So bet on "Other" if you believe the release will be later than any current options.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ3,314
2Ṁ1,157
3Ṁ947
4Ṁ797
5Ṁ718
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy