MANIFOLD
When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
February 21, 2028
50%
Before 2027
75%
Before 2028
82%
Before 2029
28%
2029+ (inclusive)

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the time period when OpenAI releases a model referred to as "GPT-6" (or minor naming variations like "GPT-6-mini") that is publicly accessible outside OpenAI. A closed beta does not count; the model must be accessible to some members of the public, including through API access.

Market context
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