What will happen/be discussed on Manifold: Live! Episode 6 with @MarcusAbramovitch & @Domer? (Live @ 2 PM PT)
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resolved Jan 14
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What prediction of yours are you most proud of in retrospect?
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The word "rationalussy" is spoken.
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Someone on the show will place a bet of 1000 mana or more.
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Relevant differences between real money and play money prediction markets
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Who's the best prediction market trader most of us haven't heard of?
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Are we getting a Biden vs Trump rematch? If so, who wins? https://manifold.markets/April/will-either-joe-biden-or-donald-tru
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Is there anything we can predict will be correlated with the result of the US presidential election? https://manifold.markets/Joshua/when-will-anyone-show-me-a-single-m?r=Sm9zaHVh
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YES
Who are the best political analysts/pundits? Do you think they could do well on a prediction market? (Silver, Klein, Yglesias, etc)
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NO
What's the best strategy for the ACX 2024 Forecasting Contest? https://manifold.markets/news/acx-2024-prediction-contest
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What book would you tell every prediction market trader to read?
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Talking about each other's day to day stuff and the relevance to PMs
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Who will get second place in the republican Iowa Caucus? https://manifold.markets/Joshua/what-will-the-order-of-the-top-4-fi
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Talk about the house speaker market and Domer's reasoning for his bets there
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Why do real-money markets have Biden's odds so much lower than us?
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Guidelines for using your inside views.
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more 2024 predictions
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Rationalussy (defined as rationalist sex) happens on screen.
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Review of Taiwan election betting
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Someone on the show will place a bet of 10,000 mana or more.

Manifold Live's Episode 6 will air Sunday afternoon 1/14 at 2 Pacific with special guests @MarcusAbramovitch. and @Domer.

You can watch the show live on Twitch, join the audience in the Manifold Discord, or watch the recordings on Youtube.

Marcus and Domer are two of the best traders out there, consistently topping the Manifold and Polymarket leaderboards. During the show we'll be discussing markets they're interested in and seeing if we can set up any big live bets between them. I think most of their overlapping interest is in the US presidential election, but we're always open to topic suggestions!

In this market, you can predict anything that will happen on the show. You can then watch the show as it airs, and bet on this market as you see predictions come true!

You can suggest markets to bet on, questions to ask the guests, or anything else that would make for a fun show. Unhelpful submissions may be N/A-ed, while particularly good suggestions may win mana prizes.

Finally, if you want to suggest future guests for the show and hear about new episodes you can do so at /Joshua/who-will-appear-on-manifold-live-ou and follow the show's account here.

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