Will be based on the finalized popular vote count as reported by the media. The answer format is "First place > Second Place > Third Place > Fourth Place".
You can submit your own orders to split from "other". Please submit only new orders of exactly four candidates.
Note that this market only considers major candidates who are still in the race, as defined by 538:
If so many candidates drop out that there are not 4 major candidates, answers will use [No Other Major Candidate] in their ranking.
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@Joshua if zuck runs as 3p, i feel like he takes this easy. i figure running meta is roughly as hard as running the nation, main challenge is that state intelligence reports might be worse than meta's internal ones.
@benshindel Comment is facetious. I also think being president is harder than running meta and that the feds have better intel, bc meta cooperates willingly
Election szn manifold goes HARD (very fun)
By the way, caucuses are weird. There's the initial popular vote, the final popular vote, and the SDEs. This market will resolve to the final popular vote, as reported by reliable media sources.
Also, note that in 2020 reporting was a shitshow and we didn't even know who won the night of. In the end, Pete got 1 more delegate but Bernie got more votes. In 2020, this would have stayed open until we knew the final results and then resolved to Bernie.
Anyone want to make a market on if tonight will also be a shitshow?
There's a whole dashboard!