Universal Love Market - Which public figures will get engaged before 2026? [Unlinked Free Response]
Standard
33
Ṁ3152
2026
60%
Zendaya
57%
Taylor Swift
55%
Travis Kelce
53%
Ariana Grande
52%
Kanye West
50%
Josh Allen
41%
Tom Brady
39%
Timothée Chalamet
39%
Pete Davidson
35%
Britney Spears
35%
Kim Kardashian
34%
Elon Musk
33%
Aella
27%
Bill Gates
26%
Leonardo DiCaprio
24%
John Mayer
23%
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Resolved
YES
Tim Scott
Resolved
N/A
Jimmy Carter
Resolved
N/A
Jeff Bezos

If someone on this list announces an engagement between now and the end of 2025, I will resolve their name to YES.

At the end of 2025, all remaining names will resolve to NO.

Feel free to submit the names of any living, unmarried, unengaged, adult public figures you think people would be interested in knowing the odds of engagement for.

Any duplicates or submissions not meeting the criteria will be N/A-ed.

If a public figure suddenly announces they got married without having previously publicized the engagement, that also counts as YES.

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Kanye West

as much as I'd love to profit off this, the Ye/Bianca marriage was confirmed here before market creation

@shankypanky So that was like right before market creation and at the time I made a comment saying I wasn't counting it as official until it was on Wikipedia. It's actually still not on Wikipedia, so maybe Pagesix/Daily Mail were wrong?

@Joshua ah oops - I didn't read down to earlier comments

@aimless_intent this market was created after that engagement was publicized so he would need to get engaged again before 26 for him to resolve as YES

@KnowNothing

If a public figure suddenly announces they got married without having previously publicized the engagement, that also counts as YES.

Then why would this resolve as YES?

@aimless_intent it wouldn't. i assumed you were saying that it would make it resolve YES bc of the recently bought Bezos shares next to your name.

@Joshua can you comment on this edge case?

@aimless_intent Ah, I said Unwed in the description when I should have said Unwed or Unengaged. I'm inclined to N/A Bezos if he's already engaged. Any objections to that?

@Joshua no objections from me

Kanye West

I wanted to submit him but apparently they got married already (not quite sure how confirmed that is).

Ohhh this is a fun edge case! I don't think it's confirmed enough to N/A it!

If wikipedia starts listing him as married I'll resolve his name Yes.

@Joshua It’s Ye, not Yes.

I know he might get divorced, but per the criteria he's not currently unwed so this N/As

@Joshua oh oops, sorry for not reading carefully

You can resubmit him if a divorce happens 😅

@Joshua isn't the same true for Yud? I thought he's been married (in an open relationship) for a while now?

Obviously it occurs to me that we live in a bizarre time where anyone would know any of these things about a person they've never met but here we are 😅

@shankypanky Oh I had no idea, I thought he was just partnered but unwed.

@Joshua whatever weight you can give a site called "FactsBuddy"...

https://factsbuddy.com/eliezer-yudkowsky/

@shankypanky Oh, I do think that is out of date. I remember him not being with Brienne anymore but I could be wrong.

bros hating

The base rates are low! So low I actually just decided last minute to edit this and give it another year so it's more possible.

See previously: /Joshua/universal-death-market-which-public

I'm submitting and N/A-ing Jimmy here myself to head off the inevitable 😅

@Joshua well he's single now