Will I get married by 2030?
closes 2029

This market is part of a post: Manifold for CBT

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Will I be dating anyone at the end of 2023?
GustavoLacerda avatarGustavo Lacerda
32% chance
Will I (Aella) find someone new to seriously date by the end of 2023?
Aella avatarAella ​
19% chance
Will I date someone new in 2023?
derikk avatarDerik K
27% chance
Will I get a girlfriend this year?
BenjaminIkuta avatarBenjamin Ikuta
42% chance
Will my relationship with Austin last a year?
rachel avatarRachel
99% chance
Will I (Aella) find someone to seriously date by the end of 2029?
Aella avatarAella ​
74% chance
What portion of my family will call me Olivia at the main Christmas event in 2023?
Will I have a girlfriend by September 1, 2024?
VictorLJZ avatarVictor Li
34% chance
Will my dating doc lead to a date in 2023?
EmanuelRylke avatarEmanuel Rylke
53% chance
Will I find a partner in 2023?
NcyRocks avatarN.C. Young
25% chance
Will my partner and I adopt at least one cat by the end of 2023?
evergreenemily avatarevergreen
30% chance
Will I be pegged in 2023?
yunglady avataryunglady
48% chance
Will I be part of a wedding party before the end of 2025?
alleycat avataralleycat
51% chance
Will I have a baby by the end of 2025?
Aella avatarAella ​
16% chance
Will my girlfriend and I remain together by January 2024?
Vespie avatarVespie
64% chance
Will I consider myself in a relationship by the end of the year?
Wobbles avatarWobbles
75% chance
Will @TobiasVyseri and I still be romantically involved at the beginning of 2026? [M$1000 subsidy]
IsaacKing avatarIsaac
57% chance
will i get a girlfriend by the end of 2023
Nereos avatarNereos
17% chance
Will I still be with my current girlfriend by the end of the year
Wobbles avatarWobbles
80% chance
Will I attend any weddings in 2024?
derikk avatarDerik K
41% chance
Sort by:
theservy avatar
Mad software developerbought Ṁ10 of NO

From quick googling, seems like a chance of a random US male getting married for the first time before he is 34, given that they are not married by 25, should be about 40%. Since those markets are not heavily betted yet by some friends of yours who have more insider info, I suppose I can go with that rough estimate.

In general, it really depends on how much you value finding a partner, getting married, having kids, and all that jazz, because finding a good partner requires a LOT of time and effort. If you value that enough, I would recommend committing to it, establishing a measurable proxy goal (to go on 50 dates next year or smth), tracking it regularly, and doing a real effort with all you've got since this is something that is actually important to you.