Universal Death Market - Which public figures will die before 2025? [Unlinked Free Response]

Plus

338

Ṁ170k

Jan 2

21%

Ali Khamenei

19%

Jimmy Carter (99)

15%

Dick Van Dyke (98)

15%

Mel Brooks (97)

13%

Noam Chomsky (95)

13%

Clint Eastwood

12%

George Soros

11%

Eva Marie Saint

11%

William Shatner

11%

Harrison Ford

11%

Michael Caine

11%

Donald Knuth

11%

David Attenborough (97)

11%

Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud

10%

Charles Koch

10%

Rupert Murdoch

10%

Patrick Stewart

10%

Morgan Freeman

10%

TSwift's cat (Benjamin Button) (from the 2023 POTY cover)

10%

Mitch McConnell

Feel free to submit the names of any living public figures you think people would be interested in knowing the odds of survival for. Any duplicates or non-public-figures will be N/A-ed. If someone on this list has died, I will resolve their name to YES. At the end of 2024, all remaining names will resolve to NO.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Jimmy Carter

#Death markets

#Long-term multi-choice fun markets

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Jimmy Carter (99)

@Joshua He is a goner! No way he is making it through all this.

@Joshua

ohh - rest in peace, queen 🧡

bought Ṁ100 Ali Khamenei NO

Maybe add:

Princes Beatrix, former queen of The Netherlands (86)

sold Ṁ0 Answer #166beb658fc1 NO

@Joshua Ismail Haniyeh and Mohammed Deif are confirmed dead at this point though multiple outlets

Comment hidden

Deif can resolve

https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-military-wing-commander-deif-killed-in-gaza-strike-last-month-idf-confirms/

bought Ṁ30 Answer #166beb658fc1 YES

https://open.substack.com/pub/yashar/p/breaking-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh?r=1g6wqt&utm_medium=ios

RIP Bob 🫡 🧡

👀

Oh wow first time I've seen Wikipedia jump the gun on a "was"

😐🔫

sold Ṁ59 Noam Chomsky (95) NO

We've been Noam-ed

bought Ṁ500 Jimmy Carter (99) YES

I mean honestly, he's 95 and had a massive stroke. It's not looking good for making it through 2024.

Noam Chomsky (95)

bought Ṁ2,881 Noam Chomsky (95) YES

@Joshua

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Noam_Chomsky

Misresolve? Seems to have been changed back

Ugh

An article said he died and then changed its title and removed mentions of his death

I literally waited for the Wikipedia update because other sources are full of shit lol rip2me

Jimmy Carter is a tank wrapped in a decent man's clothes. He just reached 99 and 2/3 yrs old! 17 days away from his 100 day countdown to 100.

Jimmy gang stays winning

Please consider adding Willie Nelson after the next cull. He has even self-memed about it “The Internet said I had passed away”

https://youtu.be/J34esa_aJxc?feature=shared

I'm not sure why some of these entries were N/A-ed - Steven Spielberg, for example.

@ZaneMiller Manifold changed the rules about how many options could be in a market and people had added a bunch of options taking up space that I thought made the market worse

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