Universal Death Market - Which public figures will die before 2025? [Unlinked Free Response]
164
3K
32K
2025
75%
Maria Branyas
75%
Jimmy Carter
63%
Kabosu the Shiba Inu
55%
Mohammed Deif
44%
Noam Chomsky
44%
James Earl Jones
43%
Chuck Grassley
43%
William Shatner
42%
Ismail Haniyeh
41%
David Attenborough
37%
Mitch McConnell
34%
Dick Van Dyke
34%
Miguel Ángel Félix Gallardo
32%
Mel Brooks
30%
George Soros
30%
TSwift's cat (Benjamin Button) (from the 2023 POTY cover)
30%
Buzz Aldrin
29%
Gary Lockwood
29%
Clint Eastwood
29%
Mirtha Legrand

Feel free to submit the names of any living public figures you think people would be interested in knowing the odds of survival for. Any duplicates or non-public-figures will be N/A-ed. If someone on this list has died, I will resolve their name to YES. At the end of 2024, all remaining names will resolve to NO.

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I think Stanley Baxter, Raul Castro and Alan Greenspan should be on this list. I see a little low probability that they will reach 2025. I would also dare to leave Juan Vicente Perez Mora, the oldest man recognized by Records Guinness and Longeviquest, holder of the title for more than 2 years, 114 years old and it is doing quite well, honestly I think it could reach 2025 and maybe 2026 due to its good condition, although I agree that adding too many +110 people would be quite tricky, so only 2 or 3, in case Maria Branyas dies they could replace her with Tomiko Itooka, the second oldest person, who knows, only my recommendations

@Joshua is this market maxed for answers or is there space to add someone?

@shankypanky oh i closed after people kept adding very obscure people. I'll re-open

@shankypanky I was here earlier trying to do the same, just figured it was maxed out.

@NFL well now I'm just lurking around ready to bet on OJ's mortality

@Joshua it got spammy so no need to reopen, but can you add OJ 🙏

@shankypanky Hmm something seems to be wrong, maybe we did run out of space after all? I even N/A-ed a few of the newer, more obscure options that not many people had bet on and still I can't add OJ. Investigating still.

@Joshua OH wait they lowered the limit on total answers back to 100 after previously raising it from 100. Soooo can't add anyone I guess.

@Joshua okokok "RIP OJ 2024?" market incoming I guess 🙃

@Joshua wish I could add an entry to this market for spam accounts

Ted Turner

@guacodrilo50delacruz he still alive, that is fake news, do not fall for those Twitter accounts with few followers, his death has not been reported anywhere

Elon Musk

Relevant arbitration opportunity

Mário Jorge Lobo Zagallo

@Joshua , Zagallo passed away on January 5th.

Seizing the moment to self-promote, since one trader just now bet on Macaulay Culkin

Get it together over here, so many email messages like the coal in my stockings!!!

bought Ṁ15 of José Sarney NO

@Mirek Sorry! Forgot N/Aing did that. Should be done now.

@Mirek 😅

bought Ṁ10 of Edie Ceccarelli YES

Okay looking at this market again and I think we are stretching the definition of "public figure". Per the description any non-public figures should be N/A-ed, so I'm going to do that to a few of these. I don't want to be super specific about what should count, but at the very least I think they should probably have a Wikipedia page or be someone that Manifold specifically cares about.

@Joshua I think many of the people on the list that one looks at and goes "huh?" are supercentenarians. Their claim to fame is "being really really old" (>110 years).

bought Ṁ20 of Fernanda Montenegro NO

@BrunoParga Yeah, I N/A-ed a bunch of those but left the one current oldest person.

bought Ṁ11 of Isabel Perón NO

I'm so confused by this market I'm pretty sure basically everyone is overvalued all of the time

@FreshFrier Mostly fixed now!