Imo this market is mispriced. Traders have updated way too much on the NYT piece. I doubt they made it up, but we don’t know who their sources are and what their incentives are like.

Not sure how to adjudicate at this point. NYT's story is sourced anonymously, and there's a lot of other reporting about a projectile. I'll keep it open to see if more info emerges or a consensus forms.

Sold my positions and won’t trade because of the ambiguity.

Why is this resolved?

It was a bomb, unresolve

NYT claims

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/world/middleeast/how-hamas-leader-haniyeh-killed-iran-bomb.html

and CNN claims

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-hamas-haniyeh-iran-tensions-08-01-24-intl-hnk

unresolve pls?

@Stralor can you unresolve airstrike and concealed bomb?

done

@5bd4 NYT reports:

Bomb Smuggled Into Tehran Guesthouse Months Ago Killed Hamas Leader https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/world/middleeast/how-hamas-leader-haniyeh-killed-iran-bomb.html?smid=nytcore-android-share

Why has air strike resolved?

The media seemed to have converged on it.

Your last comment said, "The headline says airstrike, but the body doesn’t and just quotes the ambiguous IRGC statement." - what changed your mind on the media consensus? What even is the resolution criteria? There's definitely a decent chance we don't find out (i.e., someone from gov. or IDF definitively confirms) for a very long time.

Doesn't necessarily need blades, but I mean a missile that kills through kinetic energy alone.

Found one reference that says so:

Causing minimal damage, it also came in almost unnoticed with very little sound to warn of its approach.

“There are kinetic missiles Israel has been using that kill using kinetic energy that essentially uses the speed and weight of the warhead to do the killing. We’ve seen that in strikes on kills where a classroom is hit that’s being used by Hamas. It explains why less people got killed and it was less noisy than an explosive warhead,” he explained.

What this also means is that, unlike the assassination in Beirut of Hezbollah’s top commander on Tuesday, Fuad Shuker, which injured at least 60 others and damaged a huge chunk of a large building, the impact is far less.

“It’s really clever to use this as it doesn’t wipe out a whole chunk of Tehran. There isn’t so much damage that Tehran is forced to retaliate with huge force. If they’d levelled a city block, Iran would have no choice but to be more aggressive than I think they will be. It was one house. It’s embarrassing for Iran but in terms of damage it’s not a huge beast,” added Maj Fox.

@AndrewKeen omg at the same moment

lol

I changed mine to poison before anyone buys it.

Knife bomb?

Didn't realize I could add an option

air strike. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna164425

Other sources are reporting otherwise. The statement as printed in English language sources is ambiguous - it’s being translated as a “raid,” “attack,” “hit,” and “airstrike.”

Hebrew news channel using Hamas/Iranian sources.

https://mobile-mako-co-il.translate.goog/news-military/2024_q3/Article-e86769f84e50191027.htm?sCh=31750a2610f26110&pId=173113802&_x_tr_sl=iw&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Thanks! I’ll keep it open until there’s something more like consensus. This is another Israeli source with a contrary report from Iran https://archive.ph/gu8QY

Fair. IRNA is saying more or less the same:

https://x.com/irnaenglish/status/1818528795881545855?s=46

And Jpost https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-812649

The headline says airstrike, but the body doesn’t and just quotes the ambiguous IRGC statement.