Manifest 2025 will take place June 6th to June 8th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the Manifest conference itself and not Less Online or Summer Camp.
Add anything that you think would be
Fun to predict, might or might not happen
Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)
Respects people's privacy
I will attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.
Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities. For example, a temporary tattoo would not count for the crane tattoo option. Market manipulation is encouraged as long as it is pro-social. You should also expect liberal use of N/A resolutions in ambiguous cases.
1,000People are also trading
message me when in lighthaven. and upon meeting you in person I will send you a link to a signal group to coordinate cuddle puddles in lighthaven.
@Quroe To clarify, someone purposely throwing one into a trash can specifically so they or a friend can then immediately retrieve it to manipulate this market would be disqualified, right?
@TheAllMemeingEye That would be fair game. However, I can try to only hand my resume to people that treat it carefully instead of handing them out like candy. I have made my resume a sort of sought after security with this market, pegging its value to this market.
Context: https://manifold.markets/post/manifold-game-show-idea?r=UXVyb2U
By the way, if anybody wants free clout, we don't have a camera crew yet. Livestream this event to your own followers and capture the drama of emergent gameplay.
@100Anonymous You can meddle in DMs from home as a member of the Public. Make deals. Insider trade. Profit.
@redcathode By the plain wording of the text, I would think that the price needs to be above the price and then fall below it - but I'll let one of the moderators make the final decision.
@SteveSokolowski does/should this resolve YES if BTC is already below 100k at the start of the conference and never crosses above that barrier during the conference?