Manifest 2025 Prop Bets
348
97kṀ450k
resolved Jun 10
Resolved
YES
Someone breakdances competently
Resolved
YES
Someone gets a job offer at the conference
Resolved
YES
RPS Poker Tournament
Resolved
YES
A billionaire shows up
Resolved
YES
10+ people with a Wikipedia page attend
Resolved
YES
Arm-Wrestling tournament with at least 8 participants
Resolved
YES
>4 people group hug
Resolved
YES
>5 people interrupt a talk by standing up and singing at least 30 seconds of "Do You Hear the People Sing?"
Resolved
YES
During their talk, a speaker eats a spoonful of yogurt
Resolved
YES
During their talk, a speaker drinks from a Capri Sun
Resolved
YES
Freestyle rap battle with at least 3 participants about who has the bigger ballpit at their house
Resolved
YES
There will be a marshmallow fight
Resolved
YES
>10 people sing concurrently in the dome
Resolved
YES
Someone attends in a partial fursuit
Resolved
YES
A debate is held over whether a fursuit is full or partial
Resolved
YES
Nothing Ever Happens during the conference (No major world news breaks such as Ukraine Ceasefire, China Trade Deal, etc)
Resolved
YES
Tumbles takes on new loans
Resolved
YES
20-25 festiman pret bop (a man in his early 20s slaps a sandwich while wearing some kind of seasonal festival attire)
Resolved
YES
2 Contestants and a Host successfully ante into the pot for Nash Pit. (The game show begins.)
Resolved
YES
Someone impresses SG with their Mini knowledge

Manifest 2025 will take place June 6th to June 8th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the Manifest conference itself and not Less Online or Summer Camp.

Add anything that you think would be

  • Fun to predict, might or might not happen

  • Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)

  • Respects people's privacy

I will attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.

Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities. For example, a temporary tattoo would not count for the crane tattoo option. Market manipulation is encouraged as long as it is pro-social. You should also expect liberal use of N/A resolutions in ambiguous cases.

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