Manifest 2025 Prop Bets
77
5.4kṀ12k
Jun 9
50%
At least 5 markets involving single chess matches played at Manifest
59%
A debate is held over whether a fursuit is full or partial
55%
Someone attends in a partial fursuit
45%
Someone attends in a full fursuit
76%
>10 people sing concurrently in the dome
55%
There is a music installation
56%
At least 10 men wear black lipstick for >1 hour
79%
There will be a marshmallow fight
50%
Freestyle rap battle with at least 3 participants about who has the bigger ballpit at their house
50%
A speaker mentions the quality of the Lighthaven bidets
74%
During their talk, a speaker drinks from a Capri Sun
75%
During their talk, a speaker eats a spoonful of yogurt
39%
>5 people interrupt a talk by standing up and singing at least 30 seconds of "Do You Hear the People Sing?"
57%
3 people kiss each other at once who have not kissed each other before
31%
Someone gives away 100+ folded paper cranes that have a message inside
10%
There is a scheduled orgy on every day of the conference
98.5%
>4 people group hug
89%
>7 people unearnest conga line
59%
Malcolm Collins attends
89%
Arm-Wrestling tournament with at least 8 participants

Manifest 2025 will take place June 6th to June 8th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the Manifest conference itself and not Less Online or Summer Camp.

Add anything that you think would be

  • Fun to predict, might or might not happen

  • Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)

  • Respects people's privacy

I will attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.

Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities. For example, a temporary tattoo would not count for the crane tattoo option. Market manipulation is encouraged as long as it is pro-social. You should also expect liberal use of N/A resolutions in ambiguous cases.

  • Update 2025-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Orgy Resolution Criteria:

    • Minimum of 5 participants is required for an event to qualify as an orgy.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
filled a Ṁ125 YES at 90% order

Situation is looking positive on this!

bought Ṁ63 YES

I am personally going to Manifest and already have an orgy organized with 5 other participants.

although there was no chance i could go anyway, i was kind of curious and interested in manifest as an idea. but these prop bets actually make me kind of afraid. not sure it would be an event i would actually wanna go to even if i could now LOL

@No_uh which parts are you most afraid of?

@No_uh I would not say these prop bets have basically any resemblance to the experience of the typical attendee

bought Ṁ5 YES

@elienops wait, does this count anyone named jesus, and by extension through etymology, anyone named joshua?

@TheAllMemeingEye getting a little too pedantic early on lol - the prop bets are fun and up for argument in resolution proposals when the time comes

maybe someone will come with a Jesus tattoo! or maybe Jesus will return to shark us all at RPS poker!

maybe someone will get their hands on @Joshua's passport and we'll learn his birth name is, in fact, Jesus

@TheAllMemeingEye At first it was just a riff on Jesus Christ returning in 2025, but honestly, if someone legally named Jesus attends dressed as Jesus & stays in character, who am I to deny it... I'd gladly lose for the sake of that hyperstition 😂

@elienops

getting a little too pedantic early on lol

This is manifold, there is literally no such thing as too pedantic here

bought Ṁ75 NO

@TheAllMemeingEye Jesus Christ, of Nazarus.

@Joshua

Jesus Christ, of Nazarus

Ah yes, Nazarus, the lesser known twin brother of Lazarus who Jesus controversially brought back to death instead

@TheAllMemeingEye LOL Nazareth*

@TheAllMemeingEye Yes, the brother who stood in for him while he went to Japan

@elienops Not to be confused with his other brother Hong Xiuquan

Jesus lives in the hearts of the righteous and accompanies them wherever they go 🛐

Tempted to make a split-off market specifically for orgy prop bets haha

@TheAllMemeingEye There wasn't even a single orgy at Manifest 2024! We fly too close to the sun.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Joshua I'm sorry I just find the word "orgy" to be irresistibly funny

Anyone one to bring a long a Hispanic friend with a certain name? If so, you can buy dollars for 15 cents!

@Joshua I can do one on stage for the closing speech.

And this breakdance was brought to you by sponsor...

@SirSalty this popped up in my notifs for this market amongst a bunch of orgy comments lol

@shankypanky OH NO LOL

@SirSalty 10/10 idea

@Joshua the orgy on stage or the breakdance on stage? Both seem like 10/10 ideas to me

@dgga por que no los dos? 20/10 idea 🧠

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules