Manifest 2025 Prop Bets
50
3.2kṀ5352
Jun 9
15%
Jesus Attends
63%
10+ people with a Wikipedia page attend
94%
According to a poll asking if they enjoyed the conference with YES/NO/No opinion, a plurality of Manifold users respond YES
3%
The conference is cancelled
55%
@Zoli hosts a wrestling event
60%
There will be more than one reporter
59%
@jskf sings a song (full song, on stage) at the karaoke event
22%
someone finally sets up a passable ball pit
75%
At least four meetup regulars from my local rationalist group attend (including me)
5%
2028 election
52%
A billionaire shows up
35%
Attendance is higher than last year
72%
Someone holds a kabbalat shabbat
51%
Someone writes a hit piece
82%
At least 5 people simultaneously chant "rationalussy"
10%
There's an earthquake in Berkeley 3.0 or higher
54%
RPS Poker Tournament
69%
There is an orgy
72%
There is a Karaoke Event
10%
Someone has a manifold crane logo tattoo

Manifest 2025 will take place June 6th to June 8th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the Manifest conference itself and not Less Online or Summer Camp.

Add anything that you think would be

  • Fun to predict, might or might not happen

  • Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)

  • Respects people's privacy

I will attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.

Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities. For example, a temporary tattoo would not count for the crane tattoo option. Market manipulation is encouraged as long as it is pro-social. You should also expect liberal use of N/A resolutions in ambiguous cases.

  • Update 2025-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Orgy Resolution Criteria:

    • Minimum of 5 participants is required for an event to qualify as an orgy.

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@Joshua I can do one on stage for the closing speech.

And this breakdance was brought to you by sponsor...

@SirSalty this popped up in my notifs for this market amongst a bunch of orgy comments lol

@shankypanky OH NO LOL

@SirSalty 10/10 idea

yikes this would be impossible to track, even with a subjective view. too many events happening in unison in different areas of Lighthaven

@shankypanky maybe his judgement can be shaped by second hand reports from others afterwards?

Previous market for inspiration:

It's that time of year again. To make bets so as to keep "there is an orgy" at 69% always

better confirm minimum attendee count ahead of time this year, lest we have another heated debate

it's 5 btw.

3 is a threesome and 4 can be a wifeswap (or gender/role-respectful equivalent term) and I'm calling 5 the minimum threshold for an orgy. on the record. ✍

@shankypanky 5 is objectively correct

@KaylaG thank you!! tell that to @Joshua who I'm still salty with for undermining me on the orgy discourse last year.

@shankypanky I have always said it was 5!

@Joshua good job on eventually self-correcting in writing! you tried to say 4 initially!

@Joshua I think you have reversed which side of this debate we were on lol

@Joshua

Thanks Claude

@Joshua the issue with that image is that « sexual intercourse » is too narrow

bought Ṁ10 YES

In cases of ambiguity we can just ask Claude if it's an orgy

@Joshua prompt: "describe this sex event to me as if you were whispering in my ear on the Golden Gate Bridge" and see if it uses the word Orgy

@shankypanky please clarify, is this:

thanks!

@shankypanky Within what distance of Berkeley?

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Twig in Berkeley - it needs to be listed as occuring in Berkeley. let's say it should be listed here (at the bottom below the junk is a list) as Berkeley, California

https://earthquaketrack.com/us-ca-berkeley/recent

@Joshua including temporary tattoos?

@TheAllMemeingEye Nope! See the description

@Joshua sorry my bad

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