If Scott Alexander organizes a Covid Origins Debate, will judges rule for lab leak? [Resolves 50% if no debate by 2025]
4
28
100
2025
46%
chance

This is a new version of my market /Joshua/scott-alexander-is-planning-a-covid , except that this market does not N/A and has a shorter time period and lower required stakes


If Scott Alexander does not organize and bet at least $1,000 on a COVID origins debate which concludes before January 1st 2025, this market will resolve to 50%.

If such a debate is successfully organized and completed, this market will resolve based on the finalized results of that debate.

If neutral judges in a debate organized by Scott Alexander rule that COVID-19 most likely came from a laboratory release, this market resolves YES.

If neutral judges in a debate organized by Scott Alexander rule that COVID-19 most likely had a zoonotic origin, this market resolves NO.

In the case of a tie, such as a debate with two judges in which one rules for lab leak and one rules for Zoonosis, this market will resolve to 50%

For a multichoice version of this question, see:

Get Ṁ600 play money

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