No COVID debate organized by Scott Alexander with at least $10k concludes before 2026

Debate happens, judges find in favor of lab leak

Debate happens, judges find in favor of zoonosis

Debate happens, the result is a tie or equally split decision (Such as one judge for lab leak, one judge for Zoonosis)

 based on the Rootclaim COVID Origins debate, Scott concludes by saying:

If it helps, I’m currently working out terms for a 6-digit lab leak bet of my own (no guarantee this will come to fruition, most of these fall apart in the resolution criteria stage). I feel bad for not being willing to answer every possible lab leak argument going forward, but hopefully offering lab leakers a few hundred thousand dollars if I’m wrong will be a suitable consolation prize.

In the Rootclaim debate, both sides put up $100,000 and then two neutral judges decided whether whether Covid-19 most likely originated from zoonosis or a lab leak from gain of function research. In the Rootclaim debate, both judges found in favor of Zoonosis.

It seems likely that a debate organized by Scott will follow a similar format, although perhaps he will have someone other than himself arguing for Zoonosis or the debate might be held in text form. A debate in any format organized by Alexander with at least $10,000 of his own money will resolve this market. 

This is a full multichoice market on all possible outcomes, you can also find a binary contingent market here: