Resolution will be based on the Arabic Wikipedia article for the event, which is currently this one.
Will resolve early if there is a clear and consistent answer before close. Resolution ignores Wikipedia vandalism, as defined by my judgement.
If the article lists a range, I will take the arithmetic mean of that range. If the article lists multiple numbers with equal prominence, I will take the arithmetic mean of those numbers. If the number is being actively updated, I will do my best to take the most recent non-vandalism-number as of close time, but may end up having to exercise some judgment or take an average if it's truly a mess.
As of question writing, the infobox lists two equally prominent numbers: "500+" and "471". I would take the mean of those and resolve based on 485.5 (resolves to "451+").
I will not trade in this market.
This is intended to mirror these markets:
/EvanDaniel/how-many-people-died-in-the-alahli
/chrisjbillington/will-the-arabic-wikipedia-continue
Close date and methodology will be the same as the former question. The reference article will be the same as the latter. I will by default is the automatic Google translation of the article, as I do not speak Arabic. Assistance and feedback on that translation is welcome.
1,000
3.00I believe the infobox is the most prominent estimate, and it gives equal prominence to "471" and "500+". That resolves as (471+500)/2 = 485.5, which is the answer of "451+". This has been stable for a while now.
If there's a strong argument for a different resolution, please post it now. Otherwise I'll resolve accordingly very shortly.