There's been some controversy! What do you all predict? Who's going to win? Will there be a reversal?
Edit: See the comments, this is not yet finalized.
1,000
3.00
If admins allow this, I'm considering spending the next month drawing the Manifold logo in my profit graph via unrealised profit manipulation instead of actually making bets, and then blatantly laundering the ~200k of loans accumulated over the month into profit at the last second on one of the "should admins allow this, really"? markets.
You have to disallow balance→profit laundering, or people will see how far they can push it.
I see no reason to allow it at all. Other than consistency with last month, perhaps - which I wasn't following at the time but I understand people were permitted to get away with similar shenanigans. In that case admins might allow it this time out of a desire to follow (bad) precedent, but should be clear that it is disallowed going forward.
I mean, it already is explicitly disallowed in the community guidelines, but for some reason was not enforced last season (and looking unlikely to be enforced this season - though we don't know for sure). This is silly. We should be able to expect that the community guidelines will be enforced and the negative effects of violations on others reversed.
I am still salty about the iris twitter market resolution, which I have griped about. I did not expect to be able to lose mana to creators maliciously resolving markets counter to their stated intentions for their own profit. I don't care that you wanted to protect YES holders' profits on correct bets - protecting losses should be more important. Some of those protected profits were due to the creator maliciously misleading betters such as myself, they are ill-gotten gains. I expected that market to be N/Ad, the creator has even said (with ulterior motives, granted, but should that matter?) that they agree with an N/A, yet the resolution stands. I can't help but suspect favouritism due to Mira being the primary YES better, and even if this is wrong and due to my bias, consistent application of more clearly stated rules would help head off this kind of suspicion, which people are tempted to see everywhere they look when rules are not well understood or enforced.
Manifold is going to have to deal with these things better if it wants to be a serious site. I'm not going anywhere, but the Iris twitter market left a sour taste in my mouth, and leagues will become a pointless manipulation-fest if profit manipulation of the kind we saw in season 4 is allowed.
Edit: which do you think looks better, left or right
Yeah, this is very dumb. You can print arbitrary amounts of profit with some balance, two accounts, managrams, and a few markets.
@chrisjbillington a couple things. I didn't look at the Iris twitter market but I assure you I don't think it's favouritism towards Mira. That said, yea, this is a problem i don't think Manifold has been dealing with well. Some small markets that slip through the cracks and affect some small profits here and there are inevitable but large markets are pretty bad.
In terms of profit manipulations, Manifold has done a very poor job at dealing with these. Either they go unpunished or the moderation is just to roll back profits gained making the incentives to play those games. The only people punished have been @levifinkelstein and @hmys as far as I can tell.
@chrisjbillington I've been a bit naive about all of this, but it is def. a big turn off of Manifold for me. It kinda defeats the entire point of a prediction market unlike the allowed insider trading.
@chrisjbillington I got 2ne. I recommend waiting for dust to settle until Tuesday for this to resolve
@MarcusAbramovitch I'm convinced now, but I'm not convinced it matters. leagues are a game; one with some prestige, but as long as we remember they're just about encouraging play a bit of shenanigans just keeps it interesting imo
@Stralor I mean, I haven't really voiced an opinion until that comment above. Idk, I think Manifold moderation is often not the best but I think they will stop this. The precedent it would set would be pretty crushing to reputability.
@MarcusAbramovitch fair enough! :) it definitely becomes a game of "who has the biggest bankroll and is willing to put in pointless legwork for false profits" if so
@nobody I think PC appears to have made a large trade in a market where an alt or confederate had a helpful limit order to generate a large profit