How much of an e/acc Supervillain will I consider Sam Altman to be in March 2024?
26
406
490
resolved Mar 2
Resolved as
60%

Inspired by:

Sam Altman has been ousted from OpenAI, and many believe it was because of AI Safety.

One thing that could happen next is that Sam basically becomes the poster boy of the e/acc movement and either starts his own e/acc company or joint another AI team and pushes it in an e/acc direction.

He might start posting on twitter about "doomers", heavily criticize the safety community for being "anti-open-source", etc. AI Safety enthusiasts might start villainizing him in turn, saying that he's going to bring about the end of the world through irresponsible AGI creation.

At market close on March 1st 2024, I will try to evaluate if this has happened since market creation. This market will resolve to the nearest 10th percentile according to my subjective judgement, with 100% being "full supervillain" and 0% being "no change, or became more pro-safety".

I will not trade on this market.

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ51
2Ṁ23
3Ṁ12
4Ṁ12
5Ṁ6
Sort by:

Tough to put a number on this, wish I'd given myself more of a rubric when I wrote the description. Altman isn't calling anyone doomers, but he's definitely downplaying safety concerns. He's not the poster boy of the e/acc movement, but they sure do like him from what I've seen.

If you asked me to say which single person was accelerating AI capabilities the most the right now, I might say Altman.

Tempted to resolve 70% for the 7 trillion dollars he's supposedly raising, but I do want to take the resolution a bit more seriously than that. I think the market did a decent job here, going to say 60%.

>He might start posting on twitter about "doomers", heavily criticize the safety community for being "anti-open-source", etc.

I think we can safely say this hasn't happened.

>AI Safety enthusiasts might start villainizing him in turn

The main recent criticism I've seen has been that trying to build his own chips accelerates hardware, but that debate started before he was fired, right?

predicted NO

Why didn't you center this around 50%?

Something like: At market close on March 1st 2024, I will try to evaluate if this has happened since market creation. This market will resolve to the nearest 10th percentile according to my subjective judgement, with 100% being "full supervillain" and 0% being "makes Eliezer look restrained in his beliefs".

predicted YES

Additional relevant context: