Right now Meta pretty much has a monopoly on the "extremely unsafe/uncaring AI company" leaderboard. However even they seem to have some high-minded altruistic ideals like open-source. If a new startup is founded that's purely profit-driven, it could be even worse.

If he heads up a new subsidiary of Microsoft, that counts too.

This market resolves to a vote among Manifold users. Regular users get 1 vote, moderators get 3 votes, and I get votes equal to 20% of the other votes cast.

The vote is specifically on the probability that Meta vs. Sam's company causes human extinction or some other form of existential risk.