Will Americans like Sam Altman, on net, at the beginning of 2027?
Mini
3
120
2027
25%
chance

This resolves based on the net-positivity score of the most recent poll I can find asking Americans, age 18 and above, what their opinion of Sam Altman is.

Net-positivity scores are calculated as (sum of percentage of the population that has an overall positive sentiment) - (sum of percentage of the population that has an overall negative sentiment).

For instance, according to this YouGov poll of 1500 US adult citizens,from November 2023,

  • 5% have a very favorable opinion of Sam Altman.

  • 11% have a somewhat favorable opinion of him.

  • 8% have a somewhat favorable opinion of him.

  • 9% have a very unfavorable opinion of him

  • 67% don't know.

Based on those numbers Sam's net positivity rating for 2023 would be (5+11) -(8+9) = -1.

What will his net-positivity score be at the start of 2027? Positive or negative?

I plan to use the most recent poll I can find that has a sample size of 1500 people or greater, by an established polling company (Gallup, Pew, YouGov, etc). If there are several polls that were produced in the six months leading up to the the market close, I'll average them together, but I don't want to spend a bunch of time trying to exhaustively find every poll that might have been made in that period.

See also: https://manifold.markets/EliTyre/at-the-beginning-of-2027-will-ameri

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