Does AGI as smart as a generally educated human currently exist?

resolved Aug 15

Yes

I'm not sure/See Results

Trying to measure a base rate for this market:

This question is about whether you think this condition is already true, depending on your definition of "Artificial General Intelligence", "smart", and "a generally educated human".

This question will close in one week, it is a poll so there is no mana to be gained or lost.

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6 Comments

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ChatGPT is clearly dumber than a generally educated human to me, though not very (it has a shortish context window which makes it bad for writing very long posts/articles; it's not super creative and needs some prodding in order to write decently entertaining stories; sometimes the code it writes doesn't work; it can't provide actually correct street directions that validate against Google Maps).

I think my main crux on this question is whether GPT-4, especially with a fancy AutoGPT/BabyAGI-style wrapper on top, can readily do a lot of different tasks that a generally educated human could do, especially with access to a very large set of plugins. I don't have access to GPT-4 or the AutoGPT framework myself (and the ChaosGPT incident legitimately scared the bejesus out of me, so I don't even want to), but I'm still quite uncertain about this and would like empirical feedback about it.

@duck_master Sheer versatility is what determines my no on this. GPT-4 is certainly more knowledgeable than the average generally educated human, but its ability to solve complex problems efficiently is lacking imo, especially with OpenAI’s restrictions on its API capabilities.