Does AGI as smart as a generally educated human currently exist?
53
resolved Aug 15
Yes
No
I'm not sure/See Results
Trying to measure a base rate for this market:
This question is about whether you think this condition is already true, depending on your definition of "Artificial General Intelligence", "smart", and "a generally educated human".
This question will close in one week, it is a poll so there is no mana to be gained or lost.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
When artificial general intelligence (AGI) exists, what will be true?
Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is possible in principle
89% chance
Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?
54% chance
Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?
40% chance
Will AI create the first AGI?
41% chance
If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?
55% chance
Will AGI come from a technology significantly more advanced than transformers?
39% chance
Will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) lead directly to the development of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)?
76% chance
Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?
74% chance
When will there be an AGI for most tasks I care about?