
Is AGI possible within the known laws of physics?
32
1kṀ36032300
98.9%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.
Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2030?
54% chance
Will we get AGI before 2047?
86% chance
Will we get AGI before 2036?
78% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
46% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
62% chance
Will we get AGI before 2032?
68% chance
Will we get AGI before 2038?
79% chance
Will we get AGI before 2037?
80% chance
Will we get AGI before 2046?
86% chance
Is superintelligence possible within the known laws of physics?
96% chance