I haven't studied economics before. Would markets with a combined $33,000,000 in volume have more efficient prices than a market with $20k in play-money volume?

https://polymarket.com/event/time-2025-person-of-the-year
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtime/times-person-of-the-year

@BrendanFinan juries sometimes are aware of public knowledge perceptions and that makes for a certain weird paradoxical effect

@BrendanFinan You'd be surprised

@BrendanFinan check out the 2028 primaries markets and you might re-think this idea

Probably meaningless but CEO of the year and entertainer of the year are both men. Maybe not the best look to make another man POTY!

@MachiNi I noticed a lot of the options were men a few days ago but didn't know how to bet on that.

@MachiNi

@traders 2026 market here

@JeromeHPowell any subsidy would be greatly appreciated

If you think about it, the POTY usually is based around the story which most dominated American news throughout the year. For 2025, I think that would have to be tariffs. The problem is that I can't think of any person or group of people who could represent that, other than Trump, who already won it last year.

@ItsMe I don’t think that’s true of all POTYs nor did tariffs dominate US news.

Which story do you think was bigger news in the U.S. this year? Maybe immigration/deportations?

@ItsMe immigration and deportations, Trump and Musk, Charlie Kirk, Israel, Ukraine. Tariffs were up there but it’s like the most boring of them all.

Interesting, Manifold has AI + Huang + Altman at 58% while Polymarket has this combo at 77%, is this huge gap due to platform specifics around resolution policies around multiple parties named?

@Eliza which rule is poly using.

A+B means both pay out at 100% wpuld be priced higher then this market.

@Yakushi12345 It looked like the first one listed would resolve 100%.

Dude I might be going schizo I swear to god I bought 1000 or so of Jensen Huang at 25%

@MIMIRMAGNVS I can see on your profile that you paid Ṁ800 for Ṁ3,692 Jensen Huang YES (19% → 23%), around when you made this comment, which matches your holdings. Unless you mean before that?

@Gen Sounds like they got a better price than they bargained for!

@Gen before that

@MIMIRMAGNVS I suspect I never pressed buy i g

@Joshua what about adding

Ahmed Al-Sharaa

Nicolas Maduro

Nayib Bukele

Mark Carney

Lee Jae Myung

Sanae Takaichi

Since they have decent probabilities in the shortlist market:

@Domer came out of hibernation to wager almost his entire net worth against the Pope. Hmm...

@ItsMe domer confirmed to be the pope?

I'm confused because if he had insider information, wouldn't he make much more mana by betting on the winner?

@ItsMe I would be very surprised if Domer has insider info. Think he just… doesn’t think it will be the pope. Has been betting that way for months