This question resolves to the TIME 2025 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit them in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it and you'll get the unique trader bonuses.
Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories.
If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.
1,000People are also trading
@MIMIRMAGNVS I can see on your profile that you paid Ṁ800 for Ṁ3,692 Jensen Huang YES (19% → 23%), around when you made this comment, which matches your holdings. Unless you mean before that?
@Joshua what about adding
Ahmed Al-Sharaa
Nicolas Maduro
Nayib Bukele
Mark Carney
Lee Jae Myung
Sanae Takaichi
Since they have decent probabilities in the shortlist market:
@brod There is no catastrophe for me but I am way overexposed for my taste. Could be my largest loss to date or the opposite.
@brod On the brightside, that means I get to make markets on when you will earn that loss back. More mana in my pockets! It's a win win!
@ItsMe I think I figured out why it's going up. You can still claim the 200 mana if you're able to come up with the answer (or give a better answer than the one I have in mind).
@bagelfan it's not really worth 500 mana. I'll give it you for free. I think when the resolution date is far away, people trade at a probability which is lower than their estimate, because they can get a better deal that way. But when time starts to run out, the whales go all-in and trade closer to their estimated probability, so they can maximize the volume of their bets.
Something similar happened in last year's market. AI was trading around 2%, but in the final few days it jumped to 8%.
@ItsMe It's obvious that it's going up because people are buying it on Polymarket, I was wondering if there's any reason that the fair value might have changed.