This question resolves to the TIME 2025 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit them in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it and you'll get the unique trader bonuses.
Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories.
If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.
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@Eliza which rule is poly using.
A+B means both pay out at 100% wpuld be priced higher then this market.
@MIMIRMAGNVS I can see on your profile that you paid Ṁ800 for Ṁ3,692 Jensen Huang YES (19% → 23%), around when you made this comment, which matches your holdings. Unless you mean before that?
@Joshua what about adding
Ahmed Al-Sharaa
Nicolas Maduro
Nayib Bukele
Mark Carney
Lee Jae Myung
Sanae Takaichi
Since they have decent probabilities in the shortlist market:
@ItsMe I would be very surprised if Domer has insider info. Think he just… doesn’t think it will be the pope. Has been betting that way for months
@brod There is no catastrophe for me but I am way overexposed for my taste. Could be my largest loss to date or the opposite.
@brod On the brightside, that means I get to make markets on when you will earn that loss back. More mana in my pockets! It's a win win!