This question resolves to the TIME 2025 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit them in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it and you'll get the unique trader bonuses.
Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories.
If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.
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@KeithManning personally I think in terms of lasting milestones, Ellison is a playable long shot.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen this website (or prediction markets in general) is deep in the AI/LLM bubble. It would probably always be profitable in the long run to bet against AI going mainstream, here. Literally everything questionable about this market can be explained by people dumping mana at the AI option.
AI still seems like an enigma in this market. Very unclear how likely time is to pull the trigger on it, and how they would do it. Huang seems a little underrated in that they may want to avoid the "you" problem and name the nvidia ceo to represent the whole industry.
I just cant see then picking pope Leo. Feels like U.S. bias, and ironically he looks
like a continuity of Francis so less "significant" that a leadership change happened for poty.
The fact that the Pope went from 38% to 16% without any real change in relevant world events suggests that prediction markets are much more handwavy and vibes based than people think.
@ItsMe I do think pope leo has been less involved in world events/the news than I’d have expected a few months back. but yeah a lot of price movement is just, some guy decided to bet today
@ItsMe the media attention is somewhat unexpected, inflated by the Democrat success in other, less certain elections. He's become the poster boy for the Dem sweep.
I’m long on Netanyahu, I think 1.4% is too low. The country he runs has been determined to be committing genocide by the UN, most of the UN walks out on his speech, etc. There are countless other historical events that I could list here, not saying he’s the most likely but 1.4% is too low probability.