This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of the Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.

If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit it in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it, and you'll get a bonus.

Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories.

If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.

@Joshua credit for market idea.