Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

Question

This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.

If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.

In ambiguous cases, I will try to match the resolution of the market to who Wikipedia lists in their TIME Person of The Year article.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost), followed by Donald Trump and/or JD Vance and Elon Musk are most likely. See the market for live updates (215 traders, as of Sep 12, 2026).