Will OpenAI reach $12B annualized revenue by end of 2025?
Standard
20
Ṁ1306
2026
60%
chance

Will OpenAI's annualized revenue reach or exceed $12 billion by the end of 2025, based on credible reports from OpenAI or the media? This market resolves yes at the point when such a report is made.

As of June 2024, OpenAI was making $3.4B in annualized revenue, after hitting $2B in February, and $1B in August 2023. Two more doublings from the current rate would be ~$13-14B.

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"OpenAI estimates that its revenue will balloon to $11.6 billion next year." Seems to mean full-year, not run-rate

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/technology/openai-chatgpt-investors-funding.html?

Finally an appropriate level on these OpenAI questions

@HenriThunberg my median is 20-something (three doublings)