Will OpenAI achieve the following annualized revenue or annualized recurring revenue (ARR) rates at any point on or before December 31, 2026? Based on company statements or credible reporting from outlets like CNBC, Bloomberg, The Information, etc.
Individual answers will resolve as they are achieved, not at end of 2026.
No grace period: report must occur by December 31
1,000I don't think ai company revenues will get much higher than they are currently, even though growth rates are fast. LLMs have already seen huge market penetration, and I'm not sure who is going to start paying for them that already isn't barring some major capabilities breakthrough.
Also competition is growing, with xAI, Deepseek, Alibaba, Mistral, Meta, and Thinking Machines having the potential to gain large marketshares.
Just back of the envelope; OpenAI revenue is increasing at a rate of ~4x this year. So, probably will end the year with ~$20b in annualized revenue. Next year, the growth should slow somewhat or otherwise increase (for slowing - more competition, for increase - more use of AI, more products) and they should therefore at least close above $50bn but probably below $100bn - but not that far short - at least like $70bn or $80bn, maybe more.