How soon will Private investment in LLMs be lower than it was in 2024Q1? (from 01.01 to 31.3 of 2024) | Manifold

How soon will Private investment in LLMs be lower than it was in 2024Q1? (from 01.01 to 31.3 of 2024)

6

1.1kṀ824

2030

51%

2025Q1

6%

Other

5%

2025Q2

5%

2025Q3

5%

2025Q4

5%

2026Q1

5%

2026Q2

5%

2026Q3

5%

2026Q4

5%

2027Q1

5%

2027Q2

Amounts in nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.
Specific to LLM technologies, if a different paradigm of Machine Learning takes precedence, that does not count as LLM investment.

This question resolves when a financial report from an organization which also reported LLM investment numbers from 2024Q1 shows a lower number of dollars spent by the private sector in a fiscal quarter than it's earlier report.

Obviously this question can be resolved earlier than 2030 but resolution requires agreement among 4/5 of bettors on the validity of the report.

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