How soon will Private investment in LLMs be lower than it was in 2024Q1?
(from 01.01 to 31.3 of 2024)
6
1.1kṀ8242030
51%
2025Q1
6%
5%
2025Q2
5%
2025Q3
5%
2025Q4
5%
2026Q1
5%
2026Q2
5%
2026Q3
5%
2026Q4
5%
2027Q1
5%
2027Q2
Amounts in nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.
Specific to LLM technologies, if a different paradigm of Machine Learning takes precedence, that does not count as LLM investment.
This question resolves when a financial report from an organization which also reported LLM investment numbers from 2024Q1 shows a lower number of dollars spent by the private sector in a fiscal quarter than it's earlier report.
Obviously this question can be resolved earlier than 2030 but resolution requires agreement among 4/5 of bettors on the validity of the report.
I will be betting in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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