Is there any point in having manifold-bucks post-superintelligence? | Manifold

Is there any point in having manifold-bucks post-superintelligence?

36

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yes, at least as much as now

less so

no, no point

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If you vote "no" here, then make less markets that only resolve after ASI.

Also consider always betting against the arrival of ASI in markets about it, regardless of your true beliefs.

Also consider always betting against the arrival of ASI in markets about it, regardless of your true beliefs.

This seems fairly bad for people who aren't in on the metagame and take market predictions at face value. I don't see a way around this, besides mitigating it with disclaimers and discouraging doomsday markets (or other markets that have distorted betting incentives).

@singer I made this poll so I can reference it in these cases.

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Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Will Manifold be cited in a paper from a top-tier AI lab or AI journal before 2025?

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