If you vote "no" here, then make less markets that only resolve after ASI.

Also consider always betting against the arrival of ASI in markets about it, regardless of your true beliefs.

@Jono3h

Also consider always betting against the arrival of ASI in markets about it, regardless of your true beliefs.

This seems fairly bad for people who aren't in on the metagame and take market predictions at face value. I don't see a way around this, besides mitigating it with disclaimers and discouraging doomsday markets (or other markets that have distorted betting incentives).

@singer I made this poll so I can reference it in these cases.