Will an agentized LLM cause some chaos?
Will an agentized LLM cause some chaos?
52
1kṀ3940
Apr 11
37%
chance

People have started agentizing LLMs to do various things, including things like chaosGPT who's goal is to destroy humanity and cause chaos.

This is based on agents using models available at time of market creation (so up to GPT4).

Resolves yes if an agentized LLM :

  • Causes death or injury to a human

  • Destroys a computer or erases valuable data on a machine not running the agent

  • Successfully writes a fake news story that causes people to act in dramatic ways (eg. crashing a stock)

  • Otherwise does something that causes chaos where if a human did it would result it some kind of criminal charge or fine (eg. Fake bomb threats)

Resolves yes regardless of intent behind creating the agent if it does something like above.

Things that don't count:

  • Someone commits suicide after talking to a standard llm chat bot

  • Someone freaks out about AI and does something chaotic

  • Someone screws up their own computer/data trying to make an agent.

Feel free to ask about specific scenarios in the comments.

Resolves in 2 years from market creation.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
sold Ṁ94 YES9mo

"Will an agentized LLM cause some chaos?" --> "Will an LLM available at market creation be agentized and cause some chaos?"

10mo

If this is truly conditionally based on models up to GPT4 as stated (those released on or before Apr 11, 2023), I don't see this happening

1y

related:

predictedYES 1y

Outcome of this could hinge on the LLM version qualification if a newer one becomes ubiquitous before the market closes. Conditional markets lower the probability.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules