Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?
200
1.1ká¹€57k
2027
48%
chance

If, in my subjective judgment, prompt-generated AI porn videos at the end of 2026 are better than live action porn videos.

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bought á¹€50 NO

Long context seems harder to solve than previously imagined

@clementdupOz Why does it need to be long context? Pornhub has a short form video platform in beta

@DylanSlagh Yes, short form video (~1min) is > 1M token under current paradigm

@clementdupOz So what does that put in terms of cost of a video? Surely actually producing porn can be much costlier

@DylanSlagh Assuming attention, the cost grows quadratically. so 1 min video is 36 times more expansive than 10s video instead of 6 times. Sora 2 is $0.1/s, and Veo 3.1 is $0.3/s, so probably $20 for 1 min video under current tech ability?

Now obviously you could do better with long context archs, but not sure which one.

you can also make multiple ‘cuts’ using separate videos you stick together? That seems much simpler

@Bayesian yea, but how is it better than live action?

@clementdupOz idk, up to jonathan!

If three mods unanimously disagree with my resolution they can re-resolve it. But probably by 2026 the resolution will be pretty obvious

How's this resolve if video generation gets close enough to real-time to make a tiktok fyp-like tailored stream of semi-custom porn?

Could easily be more, uh, compelling even if the "quality" is lacking.

How the hell you judge that.

I feel like OP buying 14k mana of Yes on a very subjective market is a conflict of interest

@ProjectVictory I agree. I think at the very least it would've been prudent for the creator to have explicitly mentioned in the description that they were planning to bet.

@ProjectVictory He has a portfolio of over 1m. He doesn't need it.

@redcat Still makes me trust the resolution a lot less. I imagine this wouldn't be above 50% otherwise.

@redcat

He has a portfolio of over 1m. He doesn't need it.

What if that is how he made the portfolio of over 1M?

@KongoLandwalker Okay, you convinced me. I cashed out.

bought á¹€50 NO

Open source model continue to lag far behind their closed source rivals. The mind-blowing results are all closed source. And no way a company like OpenAI or Google is going to let you generate porn with their models.

Mila Sofia is substantially hotter than any human instagram model. I am bullish on this

predictedNO

Curious about why was this unranked?

predictedNO

@Odoacre FUH was wondering the same thing. It's probably because it's subjective.

predictedNO

Is there a minimum length required for these videos?

predictedNO

@DanW there's a premature ejaculation joke in here somewhere...

@Odoacre Also a d*ck joke.

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