Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?
173
1.5k
1.1k
2027
43%
chance

If, in my subjective judgment, prompt-generated AI porn videos at the end of 2026 are better than live action porn videos.

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If three mods unanimously disagree with my resolution they can re-resolve it. But probably by 2026 the resolution will be pretty obvious

How's this resolve if video generation gets close enough to real-time to make a tiktok fyp-like tailored stream of semi-custom porn?

Could easily be more, uh, compelling even if the "quality" is lacking.

How the hell you judge that.

I feel like OP buying 14k mana of Yes on a very subjective market is a conflict of interest

@ProjectVictory I agree. I think at the very least it would've been prudent for the creator to have explicitly mentioned in the description that they were planning to bet.

@ProjectVictory He has a portfolio of over 1m. He doesn't need it.

@redcat Still makes me trust the resolution a lot less. I imagine this wouldn't be above 50% otherwise.

@redcat

He has a portfolio of over 1m. He doesn't need it.

What if that is how he made the portfolio of over 1M?

@KongoLandwalker Okay, you convinced me. I cashed out.

bought Ṁ50 NO

Open source model continue to lag far behind their closed source rivals. The mind-blowing results are all closed source. And no way a company like OpenAI or Google is going to let you generate porn with their models.

Mila Sofia is substantially hotter than any human instagram model. I am bullish on this

predicts NO

Curious about why was this unranked?

predicts NO

@Odoacre FUH was wondering the same thing. It's probably because it's subjective.

predicts NO

Is there a minimum length required for these videos?

predicts NO

@DanW there's a premature ejaculation joke in here somewhere...

@Odoacre Also a d*ck joke.

sold Ṁ18 of NO

There are AI porn videos made by applying an AI filter with a prompt to a live action porn video. Do these count?

predicts YES

@Paulf4db No, the video has to be entirely AI generated

what, in your subjective judgment, would be required for this to resolve Yes?

predicts YES

@shankypanky my subjective level of arousal by said videos -- which tends to be almost entirely based on the quality of the bodies depicted and the movements they make but not at all based on any costumes or plotlines surrounding them.

predicts YES

@JonathanRay do you think it's too difficult to use revenues differences in some way?

predicts YES

@singer Real porn will still be a not entirely substitutablr niche product with much higher marginal costs of production so market share in terms of revenue for AI porn will probably lag way behind its actual superiority

bought Ṁ939 of YES

Why is this unranked as well as unsubsidized? It's an important question that prediction markets are a great solution for

predicts NO

@firstuserhere My guess would be that it's because it resolves based on subjective judgement, but idk for sure.