Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?
130
1.2K
1.1K
2027
53%
chance

If, in my subjective judgment, prompt-generated AI porn videos at the end of 2026 are better than live action porn videos.

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I feel like OP buying 14k mana of Yes on a very subjective market is a conflict of interest

@ProjectVictory I agree. I think at the very least it would've been prudent for the creator to have explicitly mentioned in the description that they were planning to bet.

bought Ṁ50 NO

Open source model continue to lag far behind their closed source rivals. The mind-blowing results are all closed source. And no way a company like OpenAI or Google is going to let you generate porn with their models.

Mila Sofia is substantially hotter than any human instagram model. I am bullish on this

predicts NO

Curious about why was this unranked?

predicts NO

@Odoacre FUH was wondering the same thing. It's probably because it's subjective.

predicts NO

Is there a minimum length required for these videos?

predicts NO

@DanW there's a premature ejaculation joke in here somewhere...

@Odoacre Also a d*ck joke.

sold Ṁ18 of NO

There are AI porn videos made by applying an AI filter with a prompt to a live action porn video. Do these count?

predicts YES

@Paulf4db No, the video has to be entirely AI generated

what, in your subjective judgment, would be required for this to resolve Yes?

predicts YES

@shankypanky my subjective level of arousal by said videos -- which tends to be almost entirely based on the quality of the bodies depicted and the movements they make but not at all based on any costumes or plotlines surrounding them.

predicts YES

@JonathanRay do you think it's too difficult to use revenues differences in some way?

predicts YES

@singer Real porn will still be a not entirely substitutablr niche product with much higher marginal costs of production so market share in terms of revenue for AI porn will probably lag way behind its actual superiority

bought Ṁ939 of YES

Why is this unranked as well as unsubsidized? It's an important question that prediction markets are a great solution for

predicts NO

@firstuserhere My guess would be that it's because it resolves based on subjective judgement, but idk for sure.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I wonder if people are conspiring to keep this market at 69% just for the meme

predicts YES

@PlasmaBallin 😃

Only it's not actually an explicit conspiracy, because if it was an explicit conspiracy, it would be coordination, and if Earthlings were trying to coordinate on that scale, they would fail, and lots of papers would be using likelihood functions.

https://glowfic.com/replies/1614075#reply-1614075

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@PlasmaBallin Thx for the idea, i am doing it

bought Ṁ10 of NO

though it may be wrong, it is my duty

bought Ṁ1 of NO

@the_puzzlax

You inspired me to make this

ok everyone stop betting on this

predicts YES
bought Ṁ153 of YES

@JonathanRay This is only stills, but ai is generating 99th+ percentile stills.