By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn?
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2029
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Get Ṁ600 play money
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bought Ṁ50 NO

Making slideshows of AI generated explicit images is well within the means of current open source tools. If enough of those get uploaded that may warrant a category?

As the largest NO holder, I must say the likelihood of this is massively overestimated.
For YES we'd in the next 4.5 years need:


- Widely available video generation models trained on porn (costly)
- Generated videos good enough for people to want to watch
- PornHub to allow a significant amount of AI generated content
- PornHub to create a category for such content


All those 4 are major hurdles, imo.

@ErikBjareholt Related questions:

@ErikBjareholt These all seem like relatively small hurdles to me. And they’re not independent of one another. For example, if it’s inexpensive to produce AI porn, it’s much more likely that there will be a lot of it on PornHub.

bought Ṁ500 NO from 74% to 66%
bought Ṁ10 YES

If this category is on the site for a few weeks in 2025 & then removed, this will resolve Yes, correct?

predicts NO

This is definitely overpriced - AI-generated pornography is mired in ethical concerns regarding non-consensual use of likeness (implicitly or explicitly) that the general public seems tentatively sensitive to, and major purveyors of pornography have proved to be quite skittish about things which might cause a withdrawal of financial services. I think there's a >=25% chance it will be banned explicitly on most sites. It might even be made illegal, especially if there's a legal panic about AI generally.

@AngolaMaldives You're assuming that this will be pornography of an existing person. It's now possible to create replicable likenesses of non-existent people dreamed up by the AI.

@jonsimon Pretty sure PornHub requires actors to be verified or some such, after they removed like 99% of unverified content a few years ago due to outside pressure. That history makes them unlikely to experiment in this area. Non-existent people presumably can't get verified.

@ErikBjareholt But what about CGI porn? It exists there

opened a Ṁ2,000 NO at 80% order

@CyfralCoot Huh, I guess non-realistic porn doesn't suffer from the same ethical concerns.

@jonsimon And AI could easily make Hentai. I don't know if that's on Pornhub (not a visitor), but I guess it is.

I assume AI generated Hentai counts as YES.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@uair01 I never thought I’d update a prediction so strongly because of AI Hentai

@uair01 @keltan It is not enough for some piece of content to be uploaded, PornHub also needs to create a category for it, which they probably won't do just because someone manage to make some AI hentai.