the SBF pardon market is 2% so is the 5-10 mostly suicide?

@JonathanRay he's also appealing I think?

A detail:

Resolves whenever SBF is either dead or a free man

So if SBF is freed after 19 years this resolves 10-20 even if he commits more crimes and is jailed again.

@MartinRandall yes

25 year sentence.

Expect half off for good behavior.

He can still appeal his sentence?

Not sure what this market is doing.

@MartinRandall I guess he might die. AFAIK he can't get half off for good behaviour for this, only max 15% off

@Lorenzo he's "non-violent" so 50%

https://edition.cnn.com/business/live-news/sam-bankman-fried-sentencing-03-28-24/index.html#:~:text=There%20is%20no%20possibility%20of,former%20federal%20prosecutor%2C%20told%20CNN.

@MartinRandall Thank you!

Quite interesting to see if his coming out effects sentencing of the SBF?

Quite a pivot!

@Mirek sociopath with a list fetish

Looks like the prosecution is recommending 40-50. Can't really imagine them going higher https://apnews.com/article/sam-bankman-fried-court-ftx-21b1fd99ac841d7fe90b90c96c3a9a5d

@Marnix reminder that this market is about how many years he actually serves in prison, not the sentence. People sentenced to 40-50 years get out after half that or less

@JonathanRay USUALLY get out after half that or less 😛

Plus, yeah, there's no guarantee that he'll even get the full recommended sentence

I wonder who he's linking up with in the big house?

Since this question will wait until SBF dies or is freed from prison before resolving, which could take many decades, I have opened a new question about how many months SBF will be sentenced to in March 2024.

Actuarial tables give him 45 years, I think 40-50 is probably still underbought even if he's sentenced to 50+ (Or I'm missing something obvious).

@Sailfish nobody serves the amount they're sentenced to

@Sailfish Do the tables account for the health effects of being in a US prison for 50 years?

The combined statutory maximum for the list of charges he was convicted of would be 65 years

Time served or time sentenced?

@MemeMan I've been assuming time served, based on the resolution criteria: "Resolves whenever SBF is either dead or a free man (not just out on bail)" -- this implies that sentencing alone is insufficient to resolve the market.

@EricNeyman that would take put a damper on this market

@MemeMan Time served. The only reason short times are trading above zero is because he might Epstein himself