(@JoelBecker and I put a handshake bet on this at 2%, my $10 to his $490)

Update 2025-03-09: Dropping the conditional "If Elected" from the title, as Trump won election.

• Update 2025-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:

  • The market will resolve after Trump's current term ends

  • The market will resolve if a pardon occurs

  • Resolution happens at the earliest of the above events

• Update 2025-03-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Commutation Resolution Proposal:

  • In the event of a commutation (instead of a full pardon), the market will resolve based on the percentage reduction of the original sentence.

  • The calculation is based on the reduction: for example, if the original sentence is 25 years and it is commuted to 10 years, that represents a 15-year reduction, so the market would resolve at 60% (15/25).

  • This rule applies only if a commutation occurs and is in addition to the resolution events already described.