Will Trump pardon SBF?
82
1kṀ21k
2029
12%
chance

(@JoelBecker and I put a handshake bet on this at 2%, my $10 to his $490)

Update 2025-03-09: Dropping the conditional "If Elected" from the title, as Trump won election.

  • Update 2025-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:

    • The market will resolve after Trump's current term ends

    • The market will resolve if a pardon occurs

    • Resolution happens at the earliest of the above events

  • Update 2025-03-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Commutation Resolution Proposal:

    • In the event of a commutation (instead of a full pardon), the market will resolve based on the percentage reduction of the original sentence.

    • The calculation is based on the reduction: for example, if the original sentence is 25 years and it is commuted to 10 years, that represents a 15-year reduction, so the market would resolve at 60% (15/25).

    • This rule applies only if a commutation occurs and is in addition to the resolution events already described.

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You got a great deal (if I understand the direction of the bet correctly)

@bens haha thanks! feels kinda nice to have called it. maybe i should offer @JoelBecker to sell out at some terms

Does a commutation, rather than a full pardon, count?

@MaxMorehead uh honestly I don't know enough about the pardon system to strongly say. My instinct would be that a commutation is like 50% of a pardon and resolve to prob that way? very open to people pushing for one or another view though.

@Austin A commutation only reduces the sentence, whereas a pardon (or "full pardon") makes it be as if you hadn't committed the crime. So a commutation would generally mean he would remain a felon, but gets out early. Gerald Ford pardoned Richard Nixon after Watergate, whereas Chelsea Manning sentence was commuted by Obama. Ross Ulbricht recently received a full pardon from Trump.

Trump could do something like commute his sentence to 10 years (or any other number of years).

Personally, my first reaction is a commutation is not a pardon, and Claude agrees. However, Wikpedia says "A pardon is a government decision to allow a person to be relieved of some or all of the legal consequences resulting from a criminal conviction." That definition would include a commutation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pardon

@MaxMorehead okay my unprincipled proposal (open to negotiation) is that whatever the commutation period is, if commuted, the market resolves to what % gets commuted.

So the original sentencing is 25y, if he gets commuted to 10y that's a 15y reduction and market would resolve to 15/25 = 60%. Thoughts?

opened a Ṁ900 NO at 25% order

I assume the deadline is 2028?

@nic_kup Yes, I think the market should resolve after Trump's current term ends, or the pardon happens (whichever comes first)

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