(@JoelBecker and I put a handshake bet on this at 2%, my $10 to his $490)
Update 2025-03-09: Dropping the conditional "If Elected" from the title, as Trump won election.
Update 2025-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
The market will resolve after Trump's current term ends
The market will resolve if a pardon occurs
Resolution happens at the earliest of the above events
Update 2025-03-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Commutation Resolution Proposal:
In the event of a commutation (instead of a full pardon), the market will resolve based on the percentage reduction of the original sentence.
The calculation is based on the reduction: for example, if the original sentence is 25 years and it is commuted to 10 years, that represents a 15-year reduction, so the market would resolve at 60% (15/25).
This rule applies only if a commutation occurs and is in addition to the resolution events already described.
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@bens haha thanks! feels kinda nice to have called it. maybe i should offer @JoelBecker to sell out at some terms
@MaxMorehead uh honestly I don't know enough about the pardon system to strongly say. My instinct would be that a commutation is like 50% of a pardon and resolve to prob that way? very open to people pushing for one or another view though.
@Austin A commutation only reduces the sentence, whereas a pardon (or "full pardon") makes it be as if you hadn't committed the crime. So a commutation would generally mean he would remain a felon, but gets out early. Gerald Ford pardoned Richard Nixon after Watergate, whereas Chelsea Manning sentence was commuted by Obama. Ross Ulbricht recently received a full pardon from Trump.
Trump could do something like commute his sentence to 10 years (or any other number of years).
Personally, my first reaction is a commutation is not a pardon, and Claude agrees. However, Wikpedia says "A pardon is a government decision to allow a person to be relieved of some or all of the legal consequences resulting from a criminal conviction." That definition would include a commutation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pardon
@MaxMorehead okay my unprincipled proposal (open to negotiation) is that whatever the commutation period is, if commuted, the market resolves to what % gets commuted.
So the original sentencing is 25y, if he gets commuted to 10y that's a 15y reduction and market would resolve to 15/25 = 60%. Thoughts?
@nic_kup Yes, I think the market should resolve after Trump's current term ends, or the pardon happens (whichever comes first)