How many months in prison will SBF be sentenced to in March 2024?
41
414
790
Apr 2
8%
No sentence handed down in March 2024
3%
0-60 months (0-5 years)
1.3%
61-120 months (5-10 years)
4%
121-180 months (10-15 years)
26%
181-360 months (15-30 years)
16%
361-540 months (30-45 years)
19%
541-720 months (45-60 years)
19%
More than 720 months (more than 60 years, but not life sentence)
3%
Life sentence with the possibility of parole
3%
Life sentence without the possibility of parole

From Reuters,

U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan set Bankman-Fried's sentencing for March 28, 2024. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology graduate could face decades in prison.

Resolution criteria:

This market resolves according to the total number of consecutive months in prison that SBF is sentenced to at the first of any sentencing date in March 2024. If a life sentence is handed down that does not specify the number of months, this market resolves to either "Life sentence with the possibility of parole" or "Life sentence without the possibility of parole" depending on the sentence.

If the judge orders some sentences to be served concurrently (at the same time), only the longest single sentence will count towards the total. In the event of a split sentence (some months to be served in prison, and some on supervised release or under house arrest), only the months to be physically served in a federal prison will be counted.

Any appeal process or subsequent legal actions that might alter the sentence length after the fact will not affect the resolution of this market; only the first sentence as handed down in March, 2024, is relevant.

In the event of an occurrence that causes no sentence to be handed down, such as a delay in the sentencing date, or a mistrial on the sentencing date, the market will resolve as "No sentence handed down in March 2024".

This market will be resolved once the sentence is handed down and reported, regardless of any potential clerical errors in reporting which are later corrected. This market will also resolve if the month of March ends with no sentence handed down.

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Life sentence without the possibility of parole

It's this actually possible? I thought the max sentence under sentencing guidelines for all crimes was various numbers of years.

bought Ṁ0 of 121-180 months (10-1... NO

Similar to Elizabeth Holmes but there’s somewhat more money involved and he’s a smelly boy instead of a hot girl so he probably gets 2-3 times her 11.5 year sentence

bought Ṁ1 of More than 720 months... YES

@JonathanRay Using the same methodology, the gender disparity in sentencing is 6 times larger than the racial disparity.

@JonathanRay Ken lay and Jeff skilling got 45 and 25 years. That seems comparable to sbf

sold Ṁ20 of 0-60 months (0-5 years) NO

@JonathanRay Holmes was only found guilty of defrauding investors. SBF defrauded both customers and investors, which is worse because customers are less sophisticated, and losses are more significant for customers. Furthermore, the total monetary amount of the fraud was significantly higher for SBF.

@MaxMorehead she also defrauded customers by selling them defective medical tests, and the valuation of her company was around 10 billion of which investors owned half-ish. I guess most of that was unrealized gains, but the same could be said of customer balances on FTX. I think the magnitude of the crime is similar-ish or somewhat worse for SBF

@JonathanRay She was acquitted of defrauding customers, which is what matters from a legal perspective. I suspect she would have gotten a longer sentence had she been convicted on those counts.