How many months in prison will SBF be sentenced to in March 2024?
62
1.9kṀ12k
resolved Mar 28
100%95%
181-360 months (15-30 years)
0.2%
No sentence handed down in March 2024
0.1%
0-60 months (0-5 years)
0.1%
61-120 months (5-10 years)
0.5%
121-180 months (10-15 years)
3%
361-540 months (30-45 years)
0.8%
541-720 months (45-60 years)
0.6%
More than 720 months (more than 60 years, but not life sentence)
0.2%
Life sentence with the possibility of parole
0.2%
Life sentence without the possibility of parole

From Reuters,

U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan set Bankman-Fried's sentencing for March 28, 2024. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology graduate could face decades in prison.

Resolution criteria:

This market resolves according to the total number of consecutive months in prison that SBF is sentenced to at the first of any sentencing date in March 2024. If a life sentence is handed down that does not specify the number of months, this market resolves to either "Life sentence with the possibility of parole" or "Life sentence without the possibility of parole" depending on the sentence.

If the judge orders some sentences to be served concurrently (at the same time), only the longest single sentence will count towards the total. In the event of a split sentence (some months to be served in prison, and some on supervised release or under house arrest), only the months to be physically served in a federal prison will be counted.

Any appeal process or subsequent legal actions that might alter the sentence length after the fact will not affect the resolution of this market; only the first sentence as handed down in March, 2024, is relevant.

In the event of an occurrence that causes no sentence to be handed down, such as a delay in the sentencing date, or a mistrial on the sentencing date, the market will resolve as "No sentence handed down in March 2024".

This market will be resolved once the sentence is handed down and reported, regardless of any potential clerical errors in reporting which are later corrected. This market will also resolve if the month of March ends with no sentence handed down.

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