"Goal": reducing my BMI from 24 to 22 (13 pounds) over 6 months starting Nov 2 without loss of strength.
"Strength": how many push-ups I can do without stopping (30ish) how many pull-ups I can do without stopping (12ish) and how much I can deadlift for 10 reps (185ish). A decrease in any one of these numbers would be a fail.
"Adherence": getting at least 85% of my calories from "minimum viable restrictive diet" allowed foods averaged over the 6 months starting Nov 1. This will vibes based and not rigorously tracked on MFP or something because I hate calorie tracking.
"Minimum viable restrictive diet" definition: eat only solid biomass with a minimum particle size of 1mm. (Things that have been ground down to a powder/liquid and then reformed into a solid, like cupcakes, are not allowed). The rationale is that this will hugely increase the amount of fiber in my diet and slow digestion even more independently of the fiber content.
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A similar market:
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-the-simple-portion-control-pla
I aim to comply with both this diet and that portion plan, more or less
Update: 2 days in I think I am far from the 85% threshold. I will need to use up or pitch my old groceries and replace them with more compliant groceries. If my kitchen is mostly stocked with compliant items than compliance becomes automatic. My teriyaki chicken bowls from costco are probably right on the 85% threshold since the sauce is non-compliant but the rice, chicken, and vegetables are compliant.
This market is saying that if I don't do the diet I have a 30% chance of success, and if I do the diet I have an 82% chance of success. That's a pretty impressive odds ratio for an ad libitum diet that's really simple and not that restrictive.