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This will be resolved following the by-election on Oct. 5

It's a guaranteed YES now, the recall petition against Margaret Ferrier was successful: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/01/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-byelection-triggered-after-constituents-vote-to-remove-margaret-ferrier-from-seat - "5 October, the earliest possible date after the Commons returns from its summer recess."

Byelection triggered after constituents vote to remove Margaret Ferrier

Decision to oust Covid rule-breaking MP from Scottish seat of Rutherglen and West Hamilton prompts contest

@JordanHicks Nadine Dorries also resigned and her seat is expected for a by-election later this year. This market will resolve YES the day voting opens in a by-election in 2023.