4
Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?
105
closes 2029
11%
chance

Sort by:
ManualBlinking avatar
ManualBlinkingbought Ṁ100 of YES

Praying it does because that means the long winter is coming.

isocuda avatar
isocudabought Ṁ20 of NO

We can't even sink our own carriers without intensive engineering, which is without a taskforce encircling it.

Probably the only option to actually take one out would lead to this market never being resolved, even then the target carrier would still be floating ghost town afterwards. 🤷

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray

Sounds like a great way to start a nuclear war. Russia and China didn’t dare during Korea or Vietnam wars.

NickAllen avatar
Nick Allen

This should roughly track the "invasion of Taiwan" question plus a few percent; there's no way China will invade Taiwan if they don't have a plan to deal with the carriers.

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Raybought Ṁ570 of NO

@NickAllen This should be lower than invasion of Taiwan. The way invasion of Taiwan happens is a weak US president allows it without firing a shot.

NickAllen avatar
Nick Allenis predicting YES at 10%

@JonathanRay the United States has this history of telling dictators they're clear to invade a neighbor and then smashing them when they do. Even if Biden greenlights a Taiwan invasion China would need a plan to deal with us responding militarily. Take a look at what lead Saddam to invade Kuwait.

Related markets

Will there be an accidental collision between US and Chinese navy vessels by the end of 2023?13%
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?29%
Will it be discovered that China is using unmanned underwater vehicles to conduct surveillance of US military facilities and activities inside US waters by the end of 2023?25%
Will China have 4 aircraft carriers by the end of 2027?84%
Will either China or the United States shoot down a manned aircraft belonging to the other one before 2025?15%
Will China institute a naval blockade of Taiwan before the end of 2025?32%
Will the USA get attacked by China at home before 2025?8%
Will China inspecting ships in the Taiwan strait escalate to an armed conflict before 2024?15%
Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2030)35%
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100?54%
Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040?17%
Will there be war between USA and China by end of 2023?4%
Will China bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?64%
Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2030?56%
Will Taiwan purchase fighter jets from a country which is not the US before 2035?57%
Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2035)49%
Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2030?42%
Will the US and China be at war with each other before the end of 2025?10%
Will there be a military conflict between China and the United States by the end of 2025?12%
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?37%