Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?
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2029
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Praying it does because that means the long winter is coming.

We can't even sink our own carriers without intensive engineering, which is without a taskforce encircling it.

Probably the only option to actually take one out would lead to this market never being resolved, even then the target carrier would still be floating ghost town afterwards. 🤷

Sounds like a great way to start a nuclear war. Russia and China didn’t dare during Korea or Vietnam wars.

This should roughly track the "invasion of Taiwan" question plus a few percent; there's no way China will invade Taiwan if they don't have a plan to deal with the carriers.

@NickAllen This should be lower than invasion of Taiwan. The way invasion of Taiwan happens is a weak US president allows it without firing a shot.

predicts YES

@JonathanRay the United States has this history of telling dictators they're clear to invade a neighbor and then smashing them when they do. Even if Biden greenlights a Taiwan invasion China would need a plan to deal with us responding militarily. Take a look at what lead Saddam to invade Kuwait.