3
Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut on June 1st 2023?
35
closes Jun 1
2%
chance

Resolves YES if Ukraine is in control of the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine, on June 1, 2023 (12:00 GMT), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). For this Market we will use the search "Bakhmut, Donetsk, UKR" and the central dot located therein.

If this area is not shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area shaded red the market resolves NO.

See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.

Resolution criteria based on https://manifold.markets/jack/will-russia-control-bakhmut-by-apri (which was base on https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023)

Ukrainian flag rolling over a field filled with bombed out houses
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JohnLewis avatar
John Lewisbought Ṁ20 of YES
JohnLewis avatar
John Lewisis predicting YES at 20%
JohnLewis avatar
John Lewisbought Ṁ25 of YES

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUkAv6tGQ3I
Wagner admits Ukraine is making advances near Bakhmut.

JohnLewis avatar
John Lewisis predicting YES at 23%

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PD-ODf5vkSY

Continued pressure in Bakhmut.

jack avatar
Jackis predicting NO at 29%

Similar question through end of June:

JohnLewis avatar
John Lewisis predicting YES at 17%

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2xK5CuhCJI

Bakhmut is danger or encirclement.

JohnLewis avatar
John Lewisis predicting YES at 18%

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdnQRCiPtVM

Bakhmut positions are failing.

JohnLewis avatar
John Lewisis predicting YES at 22%

Wagner Group still threatening to leave Bakhmut if they don't receive the ammunition they requested.

JohnLewis avatar
John Lewisis predicting YES at 25%

https://youtu.be/_OQdf7HghEo Will Wagner pull out of Bakhmut?

JohnLewis avatar
John Lewisbought Ṁ10 of YES

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