Resolves YES if Ukraine is in control of the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine, on June 1, 2023 (12:00 GMT), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). For this Market we will use the search "Bakhmut, Donetsk, UKR" and the central dot located therein.
If this area is not shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area shaded red the market resolves NO.
See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.
Resolution criteria based on https://manifold.markets/jack/will-russia-control-bakhmut-by-apri (which was base on https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023)
Wagner admits Ukraine is making advances near Bakhmut.
Continued pressure in Bakhmut.
Bakhmut is danger or encirclement.
Bakhmut positions are failing.
Wagner Group still threatening to leave Bakhmut if they don't receive the ammunition they requested.