Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut on June 1st 2023? | Manifold Markets

3

Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut on June 1st 2023?

35

closes Jun 1

2%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if Ukraine is in control of the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine, on June 1, 2023 (12:00 GMT), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). For this Market we will use the search "Bakhmut, Donetsk, UKR" and the central dot located therein.

If this area is not shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area shaded red the market resolves NO.

See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.

Resolution criteria based on https://manifold.markets/jack/will-russia-control-bakhmut-by-apri (which was base on https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023)

Ukrainian flag rolling over a field filled with bombed out houses

Ukraine-Russia war

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John Lewisbought Ṁ20 of YES

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbAl-2laYV0

John Lewisis predicting YES at 20%

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=En1vsgk8nSI

Continues encirclement.

John Lewisbought Ṁ25 of YES

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUkAv6tGQ3I
Wagner admits Ukraine is making advances near Bakhmut.

John Lewisis predicting YES at 23%

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PD-ODf5vkSY

Continued pressure in Bakhmut.

Jackis predicting NO at 29%

Similar question through end of June:

John Lewisis predicting YES at 17%

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2xK5CuhCJI

Bakhmut is danger or encirclement.

John Lewisis predicting YES at 18%

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdnQRCiPtVM

Bakhmut positions are failing.

John Lewisis predicting YES at 22%

Wagner Group still threatening to leave Bakhmut if they don't receive the ammunition they requested.

John Lewisis predicting YES at 25%

https://youtu.be/_OQdf7HghEo Will Wagner pull out of Bakhmut?

John Lewisbought Ṁ10 of YES

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nh5m0uEkItw

John Lewis bought Ṁ10 YES from 1.9% to 2%

Tor Barstad bought Ṁ200 NO from 2% to 1.9%

Tor Barstad bought Ṁ1,000 NO from 3% to 2%

Tor Barstad bought Ṁ1,000 NO from 4% to 3%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ500 NO from 5% to 4%

Mathew Bradley bought Ṁ20 NO at 5%

Tor Barstad bought Ṁ10 NO at 5%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ65 NO from 6% to 5%

Doge bought Ṁ10 YES from 5% to 6%

NamesAreHard created limit order for Ṁ1,000 NO at 13% (cancelled)

NamesAreHard created limit order for Ṁ200 NO at 10% (cancelled)

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ1,000 NO from 12% to 5%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ18/Ṁ100 NO at 12% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 12%

zxcv bought Ṁ100 YES from 7% to 14%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 7%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 8%

zxcv bought Ṁ100 YES from 4% to 9%

CM bought Ṁ10 YES from 3% to 4%

Andrey Vlasenko bought Ṁ20 YES from 2% to 3%

Mustang bought Ṁ40 NO at 2%

Jack bought Ṁ1,000 NO from 4% to 2%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ1,000 NO from 7% to 4%

its43 bought Ṁ20 YES at 7%

its43 bought Ṁ30 YES at 7%

MayMeta bought Ṁ20 NO at 7%

Child of mountains bought Ṁ1 YES at 7%

Jack filled limit order Ṁ1,000/Ṁ1,000 NO at 7%

Sergii Nechuiviter bought Ṁ10 YES at 7%

Jack filled limit order Ṁ400/Ṁ400 NO at 7%

Andrey Vlasenko bought Ṁ20 YES from 8% to 9%

Levi Finkelstein bought Ṁ18 NO at 8%

Andrey Vlasenko bought Ṁ10 YES from 7% to 8%

John Lewis bought Ṁ10 YES from 6% to 7%

Andrey Vlasenko bought Ṁ10 YES from 5% to 6%

The xD sold Ṁ5 YES from 6% to 5%

Jf P bought Ṁ5 YES from 5% to 6%

HMYS_BOT_3000 bought Ṁ3 YES at 5%

John Lewis bought Ṁ10 YES at 5%

NamesAreHard sold Ṁ82 NO from 4% to 5%

Tor Barstad bought Ṁ1,000 NO from 10% to 4%

NamesAreHard sold Ṁ117 NO from 9% to 10%

Jack filled limit order Ṁ186/Ṁ500 NO at 14%

Tor Barstad bought Ṁ300 NO from 13% to 9%

Jack bought Ṁ200 NO from 19% to 13%

John Lewis bought Ṁ10 YES from 18% to 19%

MayMeta bought Ṁ20 NO from 19% to 18%

Andrey Vlasenko bought Ṁ10 YES at 19%

The xD bought Ṁ20 YES from 18% to 19%

John Lewis bought Ṁ20 YES from 15% to 18%

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