Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut on June 1st 2023?
37
710Ṁ38k
resolved Jun 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if Ukraine is in control of the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine, on June 1, 2023 (12:00 GMT), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). For this Market we will use the search "Bakhmut, Donetsk, UKR" and the central dot located therein.

If this area is not shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area shaded red the market resolves NO.

See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.

Resolution criteria based on https://manifold.markets/jack/will-russia-control-bakhmut-by-apri (which was base on https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023)

Ukrainian flag rolling over a field filled with bombed out houses
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predictedYES

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUkAv6tGQ3I
Wagner admits Ukraine is making advances near Bakhmut.

predictedYES

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PD-ODf5vkSY

Continued pressure in Bakhmut.

predictedNO

Similar question through end of June:

predictedYES

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2xK5CuhCJI

Bakhmut is danger or encirclement.

predictedYES

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdnQRCiPtVM

Bakhmut positions are failing.

predictedYES

Wagner Group still threatening to leave Bakhmut if they don't receive the ammunition they requested.

predictedYES

https://youtu.be/_OQdf7HghEo Will Wagner pull out of Bakhmut?

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