Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of June?
resolved Jul 2


Resolves YES if on any date before July 2023, Ukraine reclaims control of the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building, located at address:

Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500

according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Otherwise NO.

For this question, the location will be considered under Ukrainian control if it is shaded blue (Ukranian counteroffensives) or unshaded. It will be considered under Russian control if it is shaded red (Assessed Russian Advance/Control) or orange (Claimed Russian Control).


Bakhmut has been a focal point of ongoing fighting in the Ukraine-Russia war, and recent reporting shows Ukraine has driven back Russian forces in some areas around Bakhmut: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-russian-forces-bakhmut-counteroffensive-prigozhin-uk-missiles-rcna83890

Resolution details

Resolution will be determined by the shading of the map over the center of the dot shown on the ISW interactive map when you search the address specified above.

Resolution will be based on the date shown on the ISW maps. In case it is unclear, the date of a map update will be determined based on the archived maps on the daily Ukraine conflict updates at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates.

See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.

The question will resolve solely on ISW maps, except in the unlikely event that ISW maps become unavailable, in which case resolution will instead be based on one of https://deepstatemap.live/en, https://liveuamap.com/, or reliable media reporting, with a deadline of end of day Ukraine time.

Related: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/

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predicted NO

@jack please resolve NO

predicted NO

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bakhmut-trap-ukrainian-advances-vindicate-defense-of-besieged-city-cfea6093 ‘Bakhmut Trap’: Ukrainian Advances Vindicate Defense of Besieged City

bought Ṁ44 of YES

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