Will Russia control Bakhmut by April 20? | Manifold Markets

Apr 20

69

Will Russia control Bakhmut by April 20?

31%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if at any point in time, Russia takes control of the train station "Bakhmut 2" in Bakhmut, Ukraine, by April 20, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

If this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. Orange shading does not count as YES.

(Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.)

Resolution criteria based on https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023

Related:

Ukraine-Russia war

Sort by:

Bakhmut is something to bet,
Will Russia take it? Don't forget,
Will it happen by April 20th?
In these prediction markets, we're placing bets.
But if Russia takes it, it's not a win - it's a threat.

Nikita Sokolskybought Ṁ50 of YES

ISW map shows they're now close

Jackis predicting NO at 44%

@NikitaSokolsky I think this isn't much different than the maps from the last couple weeks: https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-the-ukrainian-army-pull-out-of#KLzAYlEl6rij7N5IjpYd

johnleoksis predicting YES at 44%

@NikitaSokolsky If Bakhmut is gone, the news would spread everywhere. This is premature.

They never will, ran out of shells.

brpsold Ṁ30 of YES

@MarkIngraham Seems more likely to be mud season, but ISW is blaming it on lack of people and equipment.

John Smith bought Ṁ10 YES at 31%

Duddle Sack bought Ṁ50 YES from 28% to 31%

Will bought Ṁ30 NO at 28%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ55 YES from 25% to 28%

Jelle bought Ṁ20 YES from 24% to 25%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ30/Ṁ100 NO at 24% (cancelled)

David Mathers bought Ṁ45 NO at 25%

Tor Barstad filled limit order Ṁ25/Ṁ25 NO at 25%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ33/Ṁ100 YES at 26% (cancelled)

Tor Barstad filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 NO at 24%

Tor Barstad filled limit order Ṁ49/Ṁ200 NO at 25% (cancelled)

Tor Barstad filled limit order Ṁ46/Ṁ400 NO at 26% (cancelled)

Tor Barstad filled limit order Ṁ59/Ṁ2,450 NO at 27% (cancelled)

Josiah Evans sold Ṁ4 YES from 29% to 28%

nickten sold Ṁ93 YES from 34% to 29%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 YES at 34% (cancelled)

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ25 YES from 32% to 33%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ71/Ṁ86 NO at 32% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ34/Ṁ100 NO at 34% (cancelled)

David Kochanov bought Ṁ140 YES from 30% to 35%

Jelle bought Ṁ20 YES from 29% to 30%

nickten sold Ṁ61 YES from 33% to 29%

David Mathers bought Ṁ3 NO at 33%

David Mathers bought Ṁ50 NO from 34% to 33%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ18/Ṁ100 YES at 34% (cancelled)

Alex... filled limit order Ṁ135/Ṁ135 YES at 33%

Ivan filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 35%

Ivan created limit order for Ṁ23 YES at 15%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 25%

David Kochanov bought Ṁ119 YES from 20% to 27%

David Mathers bought Ṁ100 NO from 21% to 20%

Adele Lopez sold Ṁ17 YES from 22% to 21%

NamesAreHard created limit order for Ṁ50 YES at 17%

NamesAreHard created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 18% (cancelled)

NamesAreHard filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ50 YES at 20%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ40 YES from 20% to 22%

Kit Redgrave bought Ṁ100 NO from 22% to 20%

Jelle bought Ṁ222 NO from 26% to 22%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 YES at 26% (cancelled)

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ50 YES from 22% to 25%

Jelle bought Ṁ35 YES from 20% to 22%

Tor Barstad filled limit order Ṁ61/Ṁ600 NO at 20% (cancelled)

Tor Barstad filled limit order Ṁ83/Ṁ2,000 NO at 21% (cancelled)

Jelle bought Ṁ30 YES from 21% to 22%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 21%

Jelle bought Ṁ20 YES from 21% to 22%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ22/Ṁ100 YES at 21% (cancelled)

Jelle sold Ṁ163 NO from 17% to 20%

Jelle sold Ṁ872 NO from 9% to 17%

Nikita Sokolsky sold Ṁ38 YES from 12% to 9%