Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?
231
555
2K
resolved Apr 21
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if at any point in time, Russia takes control of the train station "Bakhmut 2" in Bakhmut, Ukraine, by April 20, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

If this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area remains shaded orange or not shaded for the entire time period, resolves NO. Resolution will be based on the ISW maps dated through April 20.

See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.

The specific location used for this question is: on the ISW interactive map, the dot if you search "Bakhmut 2". The shading of the map over the center of the dot when fully zoomed in will be used for resolution.

(Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.)

Resolution criteria based on https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023


(Just making the title more descriptive, no change to the question itself): Will Russia control Bakhmut by April 20? → Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ18,141
2Ṁ10,331
3Ṁ2,799
4Ṁ2,352
5Ṁ997
Sort by:
predicted YES

Filing a class action suit against the ISW Map Laggards. We seek full compensation for lost Mana. Who’s with me? 😆

@alangrow isw has shares on the no side

predicted YES

@higherLEVELING Made me look 😄

predicted YES

@alangrow and they linked geolocated sources released on April 20th. Sad!

predicted YES

It's shaded red today. Literally one day's difference between YES and NO lol

@jack Somehow you managed to pick the most interesting closing date from a month and a half away :)

predicted YES

@NamesAreHard Insight picked it from mid-February :)

predicted NO

The "Will Russia control Bakhmut" type market that ends next.

predicted YES

"You lost M$446, but you outperformed 26 others!"

predicted YES

@brp Well done!

sold Ṁ130 of YES

gg ISW wp

can we use deepstatemap.live next time? 😭

predicted YES

@nickten ISW has the advantage of having an archive of the past published maps. Does deepstatemap have that?

Can always use the orange shading instead of just the red shading if we want to include areas recently claimed.

predicted NO

@jack bottom right corner clicky

predicted YES

@nickten yeah even that function is much better in deepstate

predicted NO

@jack bottom right corner clicky

oh and top right corner clicky flag for english

predicted YES

I'm planning to create some more markets similar to this. What do people think are the pros and cons of the different maps sources that people look at?

Note that for ISW we can use the orange shading, which AFAIK updates about at the same pace as the other maps (unlike the red shading which is more conservative).

predicted NO

@jack Personally, I didn't particularly mind the procedure that was used this time. But maybe I'm biased 🙃

The original title was "Will Russia control Bakhmut by April 20?". Whether or not they control the train station now, they don't control Bakhmut as a whole (nor do the Ukrainians). The title is not what defines the market, not nonetheless this makes me feel as if the outcome is less "unfair".

I guess one solution could be to resolve "yes" if ISW shades something red and N/A if ISW shades something orange.

predicted YES

@TorBarstad I think it's ok, but it's preferable if the resolution criteria maps as closely as possible an intuitive question. For example, in this case the more intuitive statement of the question might be "Will Russia have clearly established control of the Bakhmut train station by April 20?" - the "clearly established" part helps reflect how ISW does their mapmaking.

But I suspect people would prefer to predict a question that doesn't hinge on the "clearly established" part (which could be easily done by using the orange shaded region, or using a different map). Then the question is more like, "Will Russia appear to have control of the train station?" But do note that such a question could also have come down to the wire, and seen lots of disagreements between different maps, if the deadline was about a week earlier.

I guess one solution could be to resolve "yes" if ISW shades something red and N/A if ISW shades something orange.

That's an option but I'm not a fan of that, I'd rather just ask whether ISW will shade the location either red or orange.

predicted YES

@jack I was listening to Ruslan Leviev today, the head of Conflict Intelligence Team, he mentioned that he switched from one map service (I forgot which one, not ISW) to deepstate (as many viewers and Ukrainians would ask him). So perhaps deepstate would be the best one?

Perhaps an alternative for "orange vs red" on the map could be something like "Deepstate shows an area / a point shaded red during each updated for a period of continuous 48 hours". This allows for any corrections to happen and for (dis)confirmations to happen.

predicted YES

@42irrationalist "during each updated" → "during each update"

predicted YES

@jack Forgot to mention, Ruslan Leviev was also skeptical of some of the Deepstate updates on the map and wasn't entirely certain in their accuracy.

predicted YES

@42irrationalist Yeah, I've used criteria requiring the map to show Russian control for some contiguous period of time on other questions, like in https://manifold.markets/jack/will-ukraine-control-kherson-city-c. It has pros and cons, makes the question hinge less on map updates that might be based on not much data, but on the other hand it can be a bit of a pain to check whether it hit the resolution criteria or not when there's really a lot of back-and-forth fighting.

predicted YES

@jack AFAIK deepstate allows one to view the previous versions, so it shouldn't be that difficult for singular points. With ISW maps it's much harder I think.

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

Today's update is done:

predicted YES

geo-located images of ISW putting their shoes on :

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@DavidKochanov is the main map usually on time for updates

predicted YES

@higherLEVELING do you mean if ISW update by 3pm? I think they already updated the map but haven't changed the date yet.

Comment hidden
sold Ṁ68 of YES

@DavidKochanov hm ok.thnx

@DhsuSjsu yo, can u msg me on discord. same username. i need to ask u somethin

predicted YES

@DavidKochanov does someone at ISW bet on manifold or something? haha

bought Ṁ500 of NO

@Blomfilter That's funny :) But if Russian forces claim to have full control over the station and want this to be considered confirmed - well, they could post a video from there.

predicted YES

@Blomfilter I guess then the play would be to buy yes shares now and update the map