Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?
231
2kṀ240k
resolved Apr 21
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if at any point in time, Russia takes control of the train station "Bakhmut 2" in Bakhmut, Ukraine, by April 20, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

If this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area remains shaded orange or not shaded for the entire time period, resolves NO. Resolution will be based on the ISW maps dated through April 20.

See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.

The specific location used for this question is: on the ISW interactive map, the dot if you search "Bakhmut 2". The shading of the map over the center of the dot when fully zoomed in will be used for resolution.

(Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.)

Resolution criteria based on https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023


(Just making the title more descriptive, no change to the question itself): Will Russia control Bakhmut by April 20? → Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?

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