Resolves YES if at any point in time, Russia takes control of the train station "Bakhmut 2" in Bakhmut, Ukraine, by April 20, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
If this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. Orange shading does not count as YES.
(Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.)
Resolution criteria based on https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023
Bakhmut is something to bet,
Will Russia take it? Don't forget,
Will it happen by April 20th?
In these prediction markets, we're placing bets.
But if Russia takes it, it's not a win - it's a threat.
ISW map shows they're now close
@NikitaSokolsky I think this isn't much different than the maps from the last couple weeks: https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-the-ukrainian-army-pull-out-of#KLzAYlEl6rij7N5IjpYd
@NikitaSokolsky If Bakhmut is gone, the news would spread everywhere. This is premature.
They never will, ran out of shells.
@MarkIngraham Seems more likely to be mud season, but ISW is blaming it on lack of people and equipment.