Apr 20
Will Russia control Bakhmut by April 20?

Resolves YES if at any point in time, Russia takes control of the train station "Bakhmut 2" in Bakhmut, Ukraine, by April 20, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

If this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. Orange shading does not count as YES.

(Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.)

Resolution criteria based on https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023


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Mason avatar

Bakhmut is something to bet,
Will Russia take it? Don't forget,
Will it happen by April 20th?
In these prediction markets, we're placing bets.
But if Russia takes it, it's not a win - it's a threat.

NikitaSokolsky avatar
Nikita Sokolskybought Ṁ50 of YES

ISW map shows they're now close

jack avatar
Jackis predicting NO at 44%

@NikitaSokolsky I think this isn't much different than the maps from the last couple weeks: https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-the-ukrainian-army-pull-out-of#KLzAYlEl6rij7N5IjpYd

johnleoks avatar
johnleoksis predicting YES at 44%

@NikitaSokolsky If Bakhmut is gone, the news would spread everywhere. This is premature.

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingraham

They never will, ran out of shells.

brp avatar
brpsold Ṁ30 of YES

@MarkIngraham Seems more likely to be mud season, but ISW is blaming it on lack of people and equipment.