OpenAI has launched two very expensive language models recently (GPT 4.5, o1-pro). If they launch any language model in 2025 that costs over $600 per million tokens (input or output) in their API this market resolves YES.

This will be based off numbers as shown on the OpenAI API pricing page, I may ignore a new model if it has unusual pricing that makes it difficult to compare.

• Update 2025-03-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Ignored Models and Resolution Outcomes

  • Ignored Models: If a model is ignored due to unusual pricing, it cannot trigger a YES outcome.

  • Outcome: The market will not be marked as N/A; if no qualifying model is launched, the resolution is NO.

• Update 2025-06-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator will evaluate a model's cost based strictly on the listed price on the OpenAI API pricing page, disregarding model internals or mechanics like hidden tokens.

  • A model with variable pricing (e.g., different prices for different context window sizes) will be considered "difficult to compare" and will not trigger a YES resolution if its pricing straddles the $600/MTok threshold (i.e., some tiers are below $600/MTok while others are above).

  • Example: A model priced at $400/MTok for small contexts and $800/MTok for large contexts would not count towards a YES resolution.

  • If all pricing tiers for such a variable-priced model are strictly above $600/MTok, it will not be considered "difficult to compare" and will count towards a YES resolution if it otherwise qualifies.

  • Example: A model priced at $800/MTok for small contexts and $1000/MTok for large contexts would count.