Iran closes Strait of Hormuz to international shipping in 2025
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz to international shipping in 2025
22
120Ṁ1120Dec 31
67%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves to 'Yes' if, before 2026, Iran officially announces and enforces the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping. Verification can be through official Iranian government statements or reports from reputable news agencies. The strategic significance of the Strait and its role in global oil transportation are key considerations in this market.
I never bet on my own markets.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
US boots on Iranian soil in 2025?
31% chance
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by the end of 2025?
55% chance
Will Iran or its proxies attack Oil Infrastructure in a Gulf State by July 31, 2025?
20% chance
Israel sanctioned from IMO 2025?
10% chance
Will Iran cause a halt or full shutdown to oil tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2025?
71% chance
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?
57% chance
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by the end of 2026?
58% chance
Will Iran blockade the Strait of Hormuz before Israel's invasion of the Gaza Strip ends?
61% chance
US bombs Iran in July 2025?
64% chance
Outcome in Iran by end of 2025? [Read description]