Will long-tail prediction markets gain widespread adoption by 2030?
6
Never closes
Yes
No
No, but eventually

Currently prediction markets have seemingly only found strong product market fit with elections. The volume for those markets (in real money markets) is orders of magnitude larger than all others combined generally.

By 2030, will sites like Polymarket or Manifold have found a way to make betting on mundane/niche/long-tail topics appealing and worthwhile for the average person? I love Manifold, but there is not really strong interest in the product from anyone outside of tpot yet.

I define “widespread adoption” as approaching or exceeding the valuations of sport betting (eg FanDuel or DraftKings). My personal opinion is that this will probably happen, but that the valuation will come from the election seasons primarily, rather than the smaller markets. I hope I’m wrong on this though and that’s why I’m making this poll.

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